Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ignore the troll, guys. Just like we should be ignoring the troll's username, since this is a different and unique year.

I do like how the definition of a wave is changing to fit new realities.

The Dems winning the house but losing 3-4 senate seats isn’t a wave

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ignore the troll, guys. Just like we should be ignoring the troll's username, since this is a different and unique year.

I do like how the definition of a wave is changing to fit new realities.

The Dems winning the house but losing 3-4 senate seats isn’t a wave

Uh, yes it is? Senate elections are different. If every Senate seat was up, you'd see much more Dem-friendly results. Likewise, winning 30 House seats when Democrats spent the last 4 election cycles either losing tons of seats or just winning a handful here and there, then yes, it absolutely is.

Also, if the House popular vote is 7+ points, that is unambiguously a wave, especially when taken in the context of a generation's worth of close elections. Just because the system is rigged in the GOP's favor (or a limited Senate map has had so many Democratic successes over the past 2 cycles) doesn't mean there wasn't a huge backlash to them. It's similar to building massive seawalls along a coast. Just because a tsunami didn't crash over the nearby countryside doesn't mean a tsunami didn't actually happen. It just means the structural protections kept it from affecting anything.

If you want an example of a wave with little Senate gains:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

There is simply no way you can state that winning the House popular vote by double digits is not a wave just because there was not a smorgasbord of Senate gains too. That doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.

Sorry Virginia but getting killed in the senate isn’t a wave. If the dems win the house by double digits but lose ND, IN, MO, AZ, and Nevada that isn’t a wave that’s the confirmation we are so polarized that we practically have two Americas. Ever president up till now that was in a similar position as Trump lost seats in both chambers. Also your example doesn’t work because I’d agree that if the Dems pick up just won seat and lost ND then that’s a wave. I’m talking about losing a bunch of senate seats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sorry Virginia but getting killed in the senate isn’t a wave. If the dems win the house by double digits but lose ND, IN, MO, AZ, and Nevada that isn’t a wave that’s the confirmation we are so polarized that we practically have two Americas. Ever president up till now that was in a similar position as Trump lost seats in both chambers. Also your example doesn’t work because I’d agree that if the Dems pick up just won seat and lost ND then that’s a wave. I’m talking about losing a bunch of senate seats.

Losing a seat in a deeply Republican state isn't really that reflective of the rest of the country, especially when you yourself acknowledge polarization. In that sense, it's perfectly possible for the country as a whole to experience a wave but some states to not be affected much because they have such a large lean in one direction that there aren't enough votes there to overcome it. This is particularly noteworthy given that there is a fairly solid correlation of what geographic regions are experiencing a backlash and which aren't. If Democrats control most of the seats up in any particular election, and a number of them are from these deeply Republican-leaning states, that presents a situation where it's possible to lose one or more of them but also sweep other races in other parts of the country in what is undoubtedly a wave.

What if we had an alternate universe where Democrats controlled every single seat in this class of Senate seats due to a Watergate-level wave 6 years prior? That would mean a bunch of seats in staunchly Republican states that rarely ever vote for the other party. Do you really think it's realistic to not lose a handful of them? In this scenario, a wave could still result in upwards of ~6 - 10 seats being lost just due to how hugely unfavorable some of the states are and that in most scenarios Democrats never would have held them to begin with.

I'm not even talking about 2018 anymore. I'm just saying your general interpretation of a wave doesn't fit with the way we conduct elections. The Senate is a fundamentally different animal due to the staggered seats and the larger geographic coverage of each seat. But I will say that if someone from the future told me that we didn't win NZ and AZ but also lost a bunch of other Senate seats, I'd question whether we won the House at all.

But here's my problem we aren't facing that much of a bad map. Nevada should be a give me in this environment and McCaskill and Donnelly won in arguable a less dem friendly year in 2012 and on top of that Manchin is cruising to a reelection. Also what would be the point of winning the house if the GOP expands the senate to the point that Trump can pretty much do whatever he wants?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems won Washoe for the 5th straight day. Only by 85 votes, but I don't remember them consistently winning this county the last couple cycles.

This has been the biggest bright spot for Rosen so far

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

There we go

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten, and Republicans usually do well in Florida early voting.

Two of those states have dem senators in them that looked in good shape for months now. Tester is probably fine cause Montana is purplish down ballot but what about Donnelly? Most pundits thought he was a safer dem with polling reflecting it yet now he is looking at a potentially massive EV hole. Or how about AZ? Sinema looked like our best recruit and McSally has run a bleh campaign yet she is looking at a possible 100k EV edge.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Uh, Trump's "garbage" is what's making them turn out hard...lol.

That hasn’t been the case in VA-Gov, AL-Sen, or PA-18. There was noticeable rural drop off

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Washoe is essentially a tie and Dems are starting to win Clark consistently by 10% bodes well

[Hindsight was 2020]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

There we go

[Hindsight was 2020]

Its over for the GOP. There's nothing they can do to turn back the tide. Frankly, its been over for awhile now and all this frittering over early vote numbers and polling noise and Kavanaugh Bump nonsense is dumb. This whole election is nothing but a referendum on Trump and thats it.

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party. Not that I think it will blunt the wave or anything - Democrats are hugely enthused and indies seem set to break savagely against the GOP, but still. I'd have expected Republican turnout to backslide a smidgen at least. I haven't kept up with all the data, but it seems in some places that isn't the case (ftr I think the GOP is currently running behind their 2014 numbers in FL, at least according to a graph I just saw earlier).

All I know is that if we have the highest turnout for a midterm in 50 - 100 years, it is definitely worth analyzing the crap out of.

The best answer at this point is summed up by the fact Trump is both massively unpopular but has the highest approval rating in the Republican Party since Reagan

[Hindsight was 2020]

There we go baby!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

Much more Democratic, I work on Gillum's campaign here, there's a LOT more enthusiasm for Gillum than Nelson, I think they'll keep Volusia close, but I think in the end DeSantis and Scott will win Volusia, I do hope I am wrong though, most of the cross over vote seems to be going to Nancy Soderberg.

As a local in general who do you think EV overall looks?

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should Clark #’s drop?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Does not look like Heller is getting a rural surge today from the few reporting so far.

You keep saying that but his #’s were fine the past couple of days

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1057605437959344128

Wow.  The margin between the GOP EV advantage in 2014 compared to their advantage right now is more than Rick Scott's victory over Charlie Crist that year.  That's a YUGE advantage for the GOP that's been erased.

Don’t you mean less?

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should we get EV in Nevada updates?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m hanging around Predictit and one guy is claiming the Dems won Clark again by 10% and added 2.3k+ to firewall

[Hindsight was 2020]

38K seems to be likely at this point.

So in between 35k (Toss-up but Rosen should feel good) and 40k (tilt D)

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’d love for Washoe to fix up already

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like Clark is staying steady over a historical jump https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058138108686827520

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like Clark is staying steady over a historical jump https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058138108686827520

F**k f**k f**k f**k

Oh calm down 40k isn’t likely but 38k is which is fine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cannot believe I got $850 worth of Heller No on that website for 48c a pop, lmfao

God Predictit is on a roll right now. Get this they had Sinema yes up 54-49 the other dy but is now 60-40 yes for McSally because of the OH poll. Also Donnelly is also trading at no 49-51 despite back to back A rated pollsters having him up