Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Progressive]

People keep telling me that the GOP EV is better than dems and that if Dems can’t even win EV they have no shot. Someone  please explain why these people are wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

People keep telling me that the GOP EV is better than dems and that if Dems can’t even win EV they have no shot. Someone  please explain why these people are wrong.

Read my post about 5 back.

[Brittain33]

People keep telling me that the GOP EV is better than dems and that if Dems can’t even win EV they have no shot. Someone  please explain why these people are wrong.

1) Seniors are more likely to vote early than young people and 2) we don’t know how independents will vote but probably majority Democrat amd 3) the gap is a lot smaller than it was in 2014 in most states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1057989057513484288

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Analysis of Upshot polls: independents are breaking 2-1 toward the Democrats.  An important point (bolded) for EV analysis:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you calculate out the #s in the chart, Dems are winning the overall early vote as measured by the NYT/Siena polls by something like 52.6ish to 38.4ish (with 8.9ish refusing to say who they voted for).

That is across the districts/races analyzed, and with the caveat that of course some of these districts have much more early vote than others, and that the polls were conducted at different stages in time as the early vote period progressed:

AZ-06,AZ-SEN, CA-10,CA-25,CA-39,CA-49,FL-15,FL-26,FL-27,FL-GOV, FL-SEN, IA-03, IL-06,IL-12,IL-13,KS-02,ME-02,MN-08,NC-09,NJ-03,NJ-11,NM-02,NY-11,OH-01, PA-01,PA-08,PA-10,TX-07,TX-23,UT-04,VA-02.

[Tender Branson]

TN will likely end at 1.37 million votes vs. 1.66 million in 2016.

That is 83% of 2016 early voting and 230% of 2014 early voting.

(It should be noted that overall 2014 turnout in TN was catastrophic and even in 2016, TN ranked as 2nd to last in turnout in the US among all states, just behind HI and WV).

[IceSpear]

Analysis of Upshot polls: independents are breaking 2-1 toward the Democrats.  An important point (bolded) for EV analysis:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But Atlas and the pundits told me that Mean Dean would win independents by eleventy bajillion points!

[Gass3268]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1057989057513484288

I wonder if it's possible to quantify how much an exciting candidate motivates youth turnout? Like, if Sinema and O'Rourke switched states, what impact would that have on these numbers? I don't think it would be negligible.

[Xing]

While Ralston is still calling NV-SEN and NV-GOV Toss-Ups, he is saying that if Heller isn't winning Independents, he might be done for. If Clark turnout is strong today and tomorrow, I'm pretty sure he'll predict that Rosen and Sisolak will win, though he'll probably say that it'll be narrow.

[Gass3268]

While Ralston is still calling NV-SEN and NV-GOV Toss-Ups, he is saying that if Heller isn't winning Independents, he might be done for. If Clark turnout is strong today and tomorrow, I'm pretty sure he'll predict that Rosen and Sisolak will win, though he'll probably say that it'll be narrow.

It's funny, he has NV-04 as Likely D, while our buddy Sean T at RCP has it as a Toss Up due to reasons.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1057989057513484288

I wonder if it's possible to quantify how much an exciting candidate motivates youth turnout? Like, if Sinema and O'Rourke switched states, what impact would that have on these numbers? I don't think it would be negligible.

I also think Texas just has way more young people than AZ, too

While Ralston is still calling NV-SEN and NV-GOV Toss-Ups, he is saying that if Heller isn't winning Independents, he might be done for. If Clark turnout is strong today and tomorrow, I'm pretty sure he'll predict that Rosen and Sisolak will win, though he'll probably say that it'll be narrow.

I mean the data supports close wins for both, he probably wouldn’t be wrong

[Ebsy]

Well, it shows close wins assuming that independents break narrowly or evenly. If independents break towards the Democrats decisively, it will develop into a wider victory.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

[Nyvin]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Not true.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

[Ebsy]

In which election did Democrats end up at a 4-5 point deficit? 2016?

[Person Man]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

Exactly. And I don't think McSally can erase that kind of deficit with independents at this point. As for the Republican base in Arizona, they have never been enthused with McSally as their nominee, and of course, you have the more moderate ones who disapprove of Trump, who like Sinema's centrism, and who may have been turned off by McSally's recent flip-flopping on the issues. These factors are why I believe Sinema will win on Tuesday.

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

Exactly. And I don't think McSally can erase that kind of deficit with independents at this point. As for the Republican base in Arizona, they have never been enthused with McSally as their nominee, and of course, you have the more moderate ones who disapprove of Trump, who like Sinema's centrism, and who may have been turned off by McSally's recent flip-flopping on the issues. These factors are why I believe Sinema will win on Tuesday.

The bigger thing is that PID is lagging behind voting in some parts of AZ, so there are a few voters with a pub ID who vote dem now. Of course I will cite the special election with a ten point gap between registration and results, but also the NYT poll which found Sinema winning >15% of Reps.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like Clark is staying steady over a historical jump https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058138108686827520

[psychprofessor]

In which election did Democrats end up at a 4-5 point deficit? 2016?

yes, and I don't get why people keep comparing 2018 to 2016...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Clark is staying steady over a historical jump https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058138108686827520

F**k f**k f**k f**k

[Xing]

Looks like Clark is staying steady over a historical jump https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058138108686827520

The jump usually happens to its biggest extent on Friday, but it looks like turnout will definitely be higher than yesterday. On other days when it's been at 17K at 3 PM, it's almost always gotten above 25K, and sometimes been close to 30K.