2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Hindsight was 2020]

Remember Dino Rossi? Yeah apparently he might not of been the great recruit reps hoped https://mobile.twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/973059444199211009

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP in Kansas is very concerned they are going to lose the 2nd to Paul Davis http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article205359664.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

Andy Kim who is running against MacArthur in NJ-03 raised $530,000 last quarter with 820,000 on habd in total. For all the focus Cali gets NJ could get really bad for reps. https://mobile.twitter.com/DKElections/status/981191503203721217

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/alexi/status/983695764173008896
https://twitter.com/laurenvpass/status/983678489906819072
https://twitter.com/laurenvpass/status/983674838035390464

I just can't wrap my head around what the hell the GOP is thinking in regards to Baldwin. Why blow so much money going after her when Trump barely won the state/they have no top tier recruit/the state has seen massive shifts to the dems in local races/Walker is going to be a tight and plorazing govenor race? Why not spend that 9 million in a place like IN or ND?

[Hindsight was 2020]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So that's 2 races in NC that are in play

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986585994878169088

Clearly the blue wave is dead

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cook rating changes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If seats like IL14 and VA05 are only leans then woof

[Hindsight was 2020]

Having trouble finding the source but Ojeda is ahead of the the GOP candidates in fundarsing for WV-03

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow more fundarsing this time on OH-01:
Aftab Pureval (D): 663,000
Steve Chabot (R-inc): 172,000

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Wow.

These numbers don't include self-funding, right? Does that change the equation here does anyone know?

I checked and only the R in dead last Kevin Jones do any kind of self funding.

[Hindsight was 2020]

WV is not a tossup

[Hindsight was 2020]

R's finally got someone to run against Paul Davis as Former state House Speaker Doug Mays is entering the race

[Hindsight was 2020]

Inside elections shift 5 more races toward the dems http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/house-ratings-changes-open-seats

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sheet ActBlue has just announced it has raised $783M for the midterms!!!! https://twitter.com/actblue/status/996455672647766016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fonline%2Fdemocrat-small-donor-group-close-to-raising-a-massive-1-billion-for-2018-midterms%2F&tfw_creator=KenMeyer91&tfw_site=mediaite

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another shift to Rs -->

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/996714200234897409

Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Republican enthusiasm in VA-06

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/997853230519541761

VA-06 is a R+13 district so.....

[Hindsight was 2020]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

Multiple reasons: 1) Trump is president and midterms don't go well for the president's party unless a tragic event happens (2002) and/or the president is really popular (Clinton was at like 65% in 98) and the first part hasn't/hopefully doesn't happen and second half isn't true, 2) It's May and historically GCB are close at this time and we see the breaks happen later in the summer (in fact dems being up around 5% in tge averages is historical ahead of what the opposition party is polling at this time), and 3) the GOP has very little to run on with NK falling apart, rising premiums, and the tax bill still being unpopular.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I was going to mention it but 2006 is more exception than norm. Also the economy was bouncing back in 94 and 14 but didn't help

[Hindsight was 2020]

Boy as if Tim Kaine didn't have a easy enough race before https://www.mediaite.com/online/va-gop-senate-front-runner-praised-white-nationalist-paul-nehlen/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Tennessee being on here means that Dems still have hopes for Bredesen

Why wouldn't Dems have hopes for Bredesen? I know Atlas is massively skeptical of him but y'all are acting like he's DOA like Bayh when he's shown no indication of being anywhere near weak.

Even Trump conceded in a private dinner to donors that Bredesen is giving them a very tough fight

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

I’m not sure. Stewart is going to get no help and Kaine has a stronger brand than Northam had. So Kaine crushing him by almost 20 wouldn’t shock me