WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?
Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future. it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..
I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.
I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.
But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.
This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.
0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.
The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.
I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.