AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
Posts: 871
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17
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« on: January 23, 2020, 10:05:19 AM » |
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Depends on what you mean by "trend."
If you mean it in the colloquial/non-Atlas sense, to just describe the state's overall lean over time, then the answer is obviously no.
If you mean it in the more technical/Atlas sense, then the answer is maybe- it depends on the national swing and whether Dems are maxed out in CA (which if they aren't yet, they soon will be). I think it's more likely to happen in 2024, but yeah- at some point the GOP will have bottomed out in CA and there will be a nation-wide D swing based on improvement in the PV elsewhere.. at that point yes, I would expect to see a small R trend, though it won't be very large- maybe 1% or even less.
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