GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[South Dakota Democrat]

(I realize no one is listening)

But in a strong R year, this race is Lean R right now depending upon how fast Georgia is trending blue

Perdue was the only one that would make this Lean R

Forgive us if we don't take you seriously.

[South Dakota Democrat]

(I realize no one is listening)

But in a strong R year, this race is Lean R right now depending upon how fast Georgia is trending blue

Perdue was the only one that would make this Lean R

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[South Dakota Democrat]

And how are all of you in politically boring states doing?

Wish my state was less politically boring.  I hate our governor.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Meanwhile in the real world

https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1577392855714349057?cxt=HHwWgoC-wbycg-QrAAAA

Why didn't you leave the forum for a year?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Walker going the Mariah Carey "i don't know her" route

Snippy-snip!

Walker also claims that he has never signed his name with just an "H" (as featured on the get well card). 

But to my untrained eye, the overall handwriting does seem to line up with his very looping and flowing handwriting style (I will give him that, he has beautiful penmanship) - - though I also realize that handwriting matching is an imprecise science.

It's definitely his handwriting.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Georgia voters will probably care more about the jumping gas prices than some family drama tbh. Don’t get your hopes up yet even though I think it is likelier Warnock wins now.

I don't believe prices are rising much in GA AFAIK.

They’ve come up just a bit recently here. The stations near me are generally in the low $3 range, while some were in the high 2’s a couple weeks ago.

Nowhere near that low here.  Pretty much in the mid 3s across the board, and it's the lowest it's been since gas priced surged around a year ago.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I moved from supporting nobody to supporting Walker after this debate.

That's dumb.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I moved from supporting nobody to supporting Walker after this debate.

I genuinely don’t know how this debate could improve your opinion of Walker, can you please elaborate?

I can understand if it didn’t change your opinion, or if you were supporting him before and continue to do so, but to go from undecided to pro-Walker? How?

DTC is a crazy person, that's how.

To me, what is crazy is completely ignoring how big of an issue inflation is in this country. One of the biggest reasons why I voted for Joe Biden is democrats have traditionally had a better record on inflation, and Trump contributed a lot to the national debt. But the second Joe Biden came into office, he implemented many policies that contributed to inflation an exacerbated it, such as the American Rescue Plan, the rent moratorium, expanded unemployment, $400 billion student loan debt removal, among other poorly thought out policies. But I suppose looking good in your circle is more important than being able to afford basic goods and services.

What are Republicans going to do to alleviate inflation?

[South Dakota Democrat]

The amount of copium ITT from our resident D hacks/bloomers is really something to see. 

Walker did not win the debate, no matter how much you try to spin it.

The AJC disagrees with you. 

Wooo, you really got him!

[South Dakota Democrat]

Was pleasantly surprised by some of Walker's performance. Obviously there was a still a good deal of idiocy to go around - the solution to rising insulin prices being cheap gasoline, the prop stunt, etc- but I entered with literally zero expectations, and he held Warnock's feet to the fire incredibly effectively on the abortion issue, he declared with no reservations that he would accept any outcome in November, and he didn't completely sh*t the bed. Obviously, accepting the result of an election is not something for which someone should be given much kudos, but it was still pleasing to hear in this day and age.

Somehow I don't think one side saying the issue should be with a woman and her doctor and the other side saying "why are you aborting babies instead of baptizing them" is going to be seen at parity with most rational people

Walker responding "You want taxpayer funding for abortion, so you're bringing the government right back into the room" upon Warnock saying the doctor's room was too small for a woman, her doctor, and the government was a fantastic rebuttal, and one that Warnock didn't even deny.

Warnock's position on abortion is something that I've always been very uncomfortable about with him. He's adopting the generic Democratic position on the issue, and I don't think I've ever heard him say that he was personally pro-life or that he didn't morally condone the practice. Yes, he's a Democrat, but he's also a pastor, and I've always struggled with how a man of God can support a practice such as that.

Which specific bible verse explicitly says abortion is against God's law?  In fact, I'll make it even easier.  Just cite for me a single bible verse that uses the word "abortion" in any context.

The Bible is actually pro-abortion.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I will repeat what I said on discord weeks ago:

Doubt the "walker paid for (an) abortion(s)" thing will matter at the end of the day. If you're solidly pro-choice, why would you care - you believe abortion should be legal for any reason and it isn't your business, right? Plus you were probably already solid for Warnock. If you're solidly pro-life, you'll probably still end up voting for Walker based on an "ends justify the means" reasoning - Walker will at least vote against abortion, even if he won't hold himself accountable. And if you're in the middle of the road on this issue, you'll probably end up basing your vote on something else. Plus this race could easily go to a runoff - the real election may be in January. Voters tend to have the memory of a goldfish.

December actually.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I still think Warnock is more likely to win than Fetterman, Cortez Masto, or Kelly.

[South Dakota Democrat]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1594731366297526282

wtf?

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1597387050399199233

He's such a loser.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Darkest shade: >55%
Lightest shade: <25%

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1598113292178034688

Loser is spelled H-E-R-S-C-H-E-L now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

I want Republicans in control of the house / Senate so we can at least have a chance of dealing with inflation, but without R’s holding the Senate, there is no point in voting for Walker. Trump contributed a decent amount to our current inflation (Biden more so, but I’m not giving Trump a pass) so I don’t trust him at all.

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

Do you mean Warnock?

[South Dakota Democrat]

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

Republicans have a secret plan to fight inflation.

Hahaha yes, was hoping someone would bring that up.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Do we know if they're doing an exit poll?

Not 100% sure, although there was one in 2021.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Should we post about results, turnout, etc. here or in the congressional results thread?

[South Dakota Democrat]

We're flying a little blind here since we don't have the Guam results to analyze this time.

Or turnout allegedly cratering in Virginia to tell us that all 50 states were going to be disasters for Democrats!

I'll never forgive Wasserman for that.