South Dakota will be one of the most boring states that I will map. There is almost nothing worth mentioning in this Mississippi of the north that is just moving to the right. Biden should be able to make a small improvement from 2016 just due to the national environment and third party pattern for this cycle, where less third party vote share will be the norm and helping Biden a bit more. Biden should be able to do most of his improvement in the eastern part of the state, particularly minnehaha county, as well as slight improvements on the native reservation counties, mostly from third party consolidation, but do worse in the more oil friendly western part of the state (with the exception of pennington county which he should close the gap a little there) and that area is less populous than the east, but faster growing so it is able to keep the margin fairly steady, with just a slight improvement for Biden.
+29.79 Trump to +28.20 Trump (1.59 margin swing dem)
I really doubt that Trump does that well here. Probably more like a margin of 20 points.
