It's tilt R. Don't think she can get past 50%+1 in November. But she'll get out the vote, and I think we'll get some statewide Democrats elected this year.
In the general, does 50+1 still have to happen? For some reason, I was under the impression it was just on primaries. If it's still required for the general, then if she doesn't get 50+1 I highly doubt that Kemp will either--and we'd have a decent shot at a runoff, provided our side gets out and their side does not. Cagle "won" the primary and lost bigly the runoff, for example.
In any event, runoff's are the dumbest thing ever.
Yes, 50% + 1 has to happen in the GE. I'm pessimistic about Dem chances in a runoff, as Dems haven't won one in many years, even when they've been energized (see 2008 GA-SEN, where the initial margin was pretty close, but Rs won by 15 in the runoff).