MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When voters were asked what party they prefer to control the Senate, they chose Dems 55-35% over Reps. Yeah.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excellent

Awe guys, Redban thinks he can actually win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018, and I was one of them.

I don’t understand why we keep making this same mistake.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018 lol.

I don’t understand why we keep making this mistake.

Again, I don't think Hogan is favored at all.

But unlike Bullock, he isn't running against an incumbent. Bullock's presidential run also hurt him by making it easier to portray him as a national Democrat, while Hogan is known to vocally anti-Trump.

Bredesen had been out of office for nearly a decade when he ran for Senate, and Hogan will have only been out of office for two years.

I really don't think the recency bias or the fact that it's an open seat are going to matter that much. At the end of the day, he's running in a state Biden is going to win by at least 30 points. That's a much bigger hill for him to climb than both Bullock and Bred in terms of state partisanship, and you can bet the Democrats are going to spend a lot of time tying him to Trump and national Republicans.

He'd be very lucky to get this race within single digits in the end.