Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Trashmussen has his approval amongst blacks at nearly 30%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

If Trump's approval amongst blacks is 36%, his JA would be WAY above 49%... which means their black sample is very small

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Muh Purple Tossup State that isn't a Blue State yet!

Barbara Comstock would've won Kaine's seat easily.

A Clinton Midterm would have Gillespie and Stewart winning handily.

Gillespie would may have been winning narrowly, but Stewart would never win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pennsylvania Crosstabs-

Philly Suburbs disapprove 63-30%

Northeast disapprove 47-41%

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Whites disapprove 47-42%

Blacks disapprove 90-2%

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18-29 year olds disapprove 66-25%

45 to 59 year olds disapprove 48-47%

60 or older disapprove 50-43%

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Women disapprove 60-32%

Men approve 46-44%

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White college grads disapprove 60-33%

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Those living in then suburbs disapprove 60-34%

Those living in small towns disapprove 50-41%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Trump got an impressive 70% disapproval amongst 18-29 year olds.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

But... Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk said...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Trump's approval amongst AAs in the ABC poll is 3%. That is impressive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

So it appears the Cohen-Manafort fiasco is tearing up Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Devastating, as this is a media outlet for people surely leaning to the Right. This is corroboration.

At this point, should nothing really change between  now and November 2020, President Trump should end up with less than 45% of the popular vote. No presidential nominee has lost by such a margin in a binary election since Mondale lost to Reagan. (I am not counting the two elections involving Bill Clinton, as those involved a strong independent nominee).

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

(link here)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-approval-midterm-elections-ibd-tipp-poll/

...Take a look at the voting map by counties in the last three Presidential elections, and you will notice huge swaths of counties with deep blue coloration.  The exceptions are places with large African-American, Hispanic, or First Peoples populations and such an oddity as New England. Republicans win the farm-and-ranch vote. At this level of approval, they will nearly break even in rural America. Republicans need 60% of the rural vote to offset majorities of 55% or so for Democrats in urban areas even in such states as South Dakota and Alabama.

Farmers and ranchers are usually easy wins for Republicans because they are the easiest people  for federal, state, and local taxing authorities to treat them as cash cows. But cut their commodity prices, and no tax cut can offset such a loss. The trade war can cut their revenue, and tariffs will make farming costs rise.

Don't ridicule farmers and ranchers as hicks living in the past. They are connected to the rest of the world, and that includes the consumer economy. They are often well educated.

...on Suburbia -- suburban America is becoming legitimately urban. Suburbia used to have some rural character with single-family houses with real lawns and with crowded highways leading only to and from the jobs in the city centers. Infrastructure costs were low when the roads, sewers, and schools were new. That is over. As apartment blocks replace bungalows from the post-WWII suburban boom, once-lightly-traveled suburban streets must be expanded at considerable cost. Seventy-year-old school buildings once the pride of Suburbia are often rotting edifices in need of replacement. Sewers and water lines have approached the end of their useful lives. Suburbia once had low maintenance costs and low taxes. That is over. The older suburbs are legitimately urban.   

....the conviction by a jury of Paul Manafort, the plea bargain by Michael Cohen, and the petty treatment of the late Senator John McCain may be kicking in. The trade wars may be hurtful to America, but that has yet to set in. Such things are not forgotten.     

 

When I mean "full study" I mean the sheets of data that tell us everything like vote by age group, religion, ethnicity, etc. This was just a basic summary of their findings and they omitted a lot of what I would've like to see.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Is he gonna talk about the fact IBD and Ipsos are showing the same thing?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

59% support the Mueller investigation

65% think Trump shouldn't pardon Manafort

47% think the Cohen-Manafort plea deals/Guilty verdict makes Mueller more credible, 27% say the opposite.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult/Politico bucks the trend: Aug. 28-31, 1964 RV

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/180842_crosstabs_Politico_v1_.pdf

Approve 46 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 40 (+4)

I have lost all faith in online trackers. This is why.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump has his worst approval rating from Rasmussen since mid-July. 44/54% -10

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not where you want the President to be in the closing stretch to the midterms. Notice his numbers among 65+.

Those college ed. numbers are catastrophic for the GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov decides to be the odd one out this week: Sep. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1220 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-1), R 41 (+1)

How is YouGov still in business?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Don Jr.'s unfavorable rating is 61%. Bipartisan hatred for that schmuck.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1042814868024438784

Coleman's internals are believable with those numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Massachussets-

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 64%

Source: WBUR

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OUCH!

Trump approval is 37/63% in Pennsylvania...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

Why do liberals revert to personal attacks when confronted with facts?

Go to bed, Ben Shapiro.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 14-17, 900 RV

Approve 47 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

His highest approval number among RVs in the NBC/WSJ poll of his presidency.

Bless you, sweet LL, for throwing the shades over the sunshine the MSM is blowing up our bumholes. 

Trump is cruising to a 400 EV+ thrashing of Kamala Harris. 

LOL you both should be a comedy duo where you give sh**tty political hot takes on Comedy Central.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok, so umm, Trump's approval rating with college educated women is -43...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1054386143507177472