CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GOP is probably going to get locked out in 44. The third place candidate is the Republican who berated and recorded a transgender woman who was going to the bathroom.

This is the district where Dash ran.

Barragan vs. Brown

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All the precincts in Yellowstone County have now reported, so it’s hard to see how Fagg can overcome a ~5,000 vote deficit.

Has he ever tried to legally change his name?

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Aja Brown still came second in CA-44. The transphobic nutcase came third.

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What is Young Kim like? Is she moderate?

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What is Young Kim like? Is she moderate?

Yes. I support her over Cisneros

Can you elaborate?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Correct and potentially devastating take -->

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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I now view the chance of a Democratic flip of the House as less than 30% in my mind. Absolutely no sign that they are replicating Clinton numbers in wealthy, minority heavy, suburban districts that they need to flip.

Another embarrassing #hottake. There are still millions of left leaning votes left to be counted. 

What is with these "pundits" and their knee-jerk reactions to results?

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Looks like NJ-02 is Likely GOP. Van Drew raised nearly 30 times what his GOP opponent has.

You mean Likely Dem?

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Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

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This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

What is there to spin? Republicans didn't do that bad in these primaries, as they only lost 1 congressional district so far if you go by the combined D vs combined R vote. Of course, there's still late-mail ins waiting to be counted, and the general is more favorable to dems than the primary, but it's not like these primaries are a disaster for republicans. It's more neutral than anything.

They've been trying to act like the results mean the death of the Blue Wave, is what I meant.

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https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/poll-katie-arrington-within-striking-distance-in-race-against-mark/article_3dad21a2-6aca-11e8-a070-ff58f4c3cd13.html

SC-01 Republican Primary
Mark Sanford - 39.7%
Katie Arrington - 39

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.

It’ll give him plenty of time to check out more hiking trails at least

Yeah, in Argentina.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Walters vote share dropped from 53.2% to 52.7%.

Where are you getting that? Everything I see has Walters at 53.1%

Tonight's vote update at https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm/

* MIMI WALTERS (REP)   60,384   52.7%
KATIE PORTER (DEM)   22,847   20.0%
DAVE MIN (DEM)   20,082   17.5%
BRIAN FORDE (DEM)   6,560   5.7%
JOHN GRAHAM   2,645   2.3%
KIA HAMADANCHY (DEM)   1,979   1.7%

The link is broken

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Does Jazmina Saavedra make the runoff in the 44th? She came third behind Aja Brown but she dropped out.

Saavedra is the rat who harassed a trans woman going to the bathroom btw.

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I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

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Walters ticked down a tenth of a point today to 52.6%.

If we look look at the overall GOP vote in the district, they're down 16.3 points from 2014.

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I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

Wow, they're willing to garbage dive for any material they can use to "kill" the blue wave narrative that they've set the bar extremely low.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

Oh damn I'm so sorry. I had some sort of feeling that you were joking but I didn't know how to respond.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyone else think the GOP turnout in Virginia is looking abysmally weak?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats made up 57% of the vote in VA-10. Comstock is finished.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait. Democrats currently have 49% of the vote in South Carolina?

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Sanford widens to 35 votes

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Arrington beating Sanford by 23 votes

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Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Let's see how Fox spins this as some sort of "BLUE WAVE DOOMED!" narrative.