State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

Clinton did not win HD114 by 20 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines


I'm going to be bold and optimistic and say we pickup 178. I have a feeling John Fetterman could be a factor in it since it's a southwestern PA district.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

I'm guessing Lamb won this seat? Most of his best precincts from Washington County appear to be in this district.

If it's currently D-held then I don't see why we wouldn't hold the seat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Clark Mitchell doesn't lose, I will actually not go on Atlas for the seven days from Wednesday 5/16 - Wednesday 5/23. I am very confident that Republicans will flip this seat.

Really. You're seriously making this bet after Florida?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines


I'm going to be bold and optimistic and say we pickup 178. I have a feeling John Fetterman could be a factor in it since it's a southwestern PA district.

Ok that’s not how PVI works. PA48 is R+8ish by 2016 numbers. “R+...” is not the same as “Trump+...”

If you have a problem with it, take it up with Morris. I didn't calculate it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tai is going to win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's still 51-49 Thomas with 11 of 28 precincts reporting.

Would't that be a 10 point swing to the Democrats?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Uh oh! Tai is leading! Limo, better keep your promise this time!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In terms of swings, this is turning to be probably the best day for the Democrats in months. The Blue Wave is definitely still alive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In terms of swings, this is turning to be probably the best day for the Democrats in months. The Blue Wave is definitely still alive.

What are you talking about, dude? In Pennsylvania we're looking at a 6% swing left in HD-48, a 8% swing right in HD-68, and probably somewhere between a 1-5% swing left in HD-178.

Also ignoring the 40 point swing in AL. I don't like to damage my image by engaging in a useless argument with you, but add that all together, and the national swing goes up.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So again, despite the Generic Ballot, the Dems are still performing at Blue Wave-levels...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep, Morris is seeing this as a D flip!

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996591012515647488

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, isn't Tai another Biden endorsement?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morris called it! D FLIP ANDREW

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996591627530534912

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, so despite the Generic Ballot, and Trump's approval rating, the Blue Wave is still rolling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reminder that the previous Republican St. Rep. won by 23 POINTS in 2016. 2018 is increasingly looking like Clinton 2016 margins (or better) in the suburbs + Obama 2008 margins in working class areas.

So the Dems are winning back the working class vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morris said that Thomas needed 55% of the remaining vote. That's why he stuck the fork in her.

Anyways, wasn't Tai another Biden-backed Candidate?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, Republicans won 3 Specials to the Democrats 2 tonight. The 🌊 is slowing a bit, it seems.

Next week:

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83

This analysis is retarded even by Atlas standards

Well, I certainly wouldn’t use that word, but I do agree. A very slight slow down in momentum, but certainly not the slowdown the media has been squaking about.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow. We're looking at a potential 52-point swing tonight.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/999102776457224193

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They called the race for Teresa Gallegos on Kark.com, a branch of MSNBC. Is that a Dem pickup?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They called the race for Teresa Gallegos on Kark.com, a branch of MSNBC. Is that a Dem pickup?

The GOP is finished

The generic ballot is tightening, yet their special and primary election results are still abysmal. However, the media is obviously not going to report on that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Don't pop any champagne yet.  According to the Arkansas SoS, Gallegos trails 77%-23% with 14% in.

Oops, must've been a glitch on the website. It highlighted her name, starred it, everything.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LL didn't even wait a millisecond to wank on that, hence the typos.