2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interesting, RCP has the YouGov poll D+9 (5/6-5/8) entered in as if it was taken BEFORE the CNN poll D+3 (5/2-5/5)

Is this a mistake or is "Sean T at RCP" trying to pull one over us to try and keep his "DEMS ARE DOOMED" theory alive?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That was 10 points a little while ago. Something's happening...

Do not start.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you all actually look at the RCP average, Trump's rating has remained relatively stable for the past week. It's around -9.5 which is still not enough to save the GOP in November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That's a very odd way of asking questions...

Can we even count that as a generic ballot poll?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think that 9% could pose a problem for the GOP. The Dems are running a lot of moderates and progressives in different districts they should try to target the disenfranchised Republicans like the 9% in the poll.

I still expect undecideds to break heavily for the Democrats.

Also, notice how they're using YouGov. They, along with Reuters, have been driving the GCB for the past couple of weeks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how the polls will react with the Farm Bill Collapse and Santa Fe? Probably not much or at all, but I can hope.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, the Pundits are scrutinizing the hell out of Reuters right now. That’s definitely not right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stop acting like the R+6 poll is ever going to happen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

“LL didn’t post anything of substance”

Does that need to be said? Haha

Good point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seemed like only 1 month ago they were touting how the tax bill would save their majority. Good night sweet prince

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With the North Korean summit on the brink of collapse, Trump and the GOP have nothing for the Midterms.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/998948301117493248

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

Andrew Clark, worked for Romney and the NRCC. Of course he's creaming over this poll. I want Reuters to release a statement and explain why they screwed up their methodology.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyways, "Sean T at RCP" is on it:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/999008718426689537

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So I looked at the Reuters cross tabs, it has the GOP winning GRADUATES by 5 points. Throw the entire thing in the trash.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018

https://www.twitter.com/gabriellahope_/status/999081930653077504

He just wrote another Democrat ad.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

DCCC Poll in KY-06:

But the Daily Caller told me the Blue wave was DEAD!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think we're going to see the Dems rebound in the GCB. Trump's approval rating is showing signs of weakening again.

Btw, Trashmussen released a poll today showing the GCB only +1 for Dems, but I think we all know how seriously we should take them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/999314587194417152

I think this tradeoff would make the Democrats quite happy.

I think it boads well for the Democrats, especially in the Northeast where the bulk of their gains will come from.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reuters/ISPOS

Democrats: 40% (+2)
Republicans: 37% (-/-)

Democrats improving.

Strangely, the amount of Dems and Reps surveyed are the same... So I highly doubt that it's accurate. I think we all expect more Democrats to vote on Election Day than Republicans.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-05/2018-reuters-tracking-core-political-05-23-2018.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

65% of Americans think Iran is violating the Nuke Deal... so uninformed it makes me sad.


I am fully convinced LL is Scott Presler.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many articles and narratives were made over a likely computer error?

Not sure. But Hannity, Breitbart, and the Daily Wire made sure they were plastered on the front page of google.


Btw, I wonder if Sean T at RCP will shift any ratings.