New PA Maps In Effect (user search)
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May 29, 2024, 10:06:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  New PA Maps In Effect (search mode)
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Author Topic: New PA Maps In Effect  (Read 88109 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2018, 10:50:26 PM »
Wolf is going to veto this map. It still looks pretty choppy around the SW and SE and the fact that the GOP put Conor Lamb's hometown in PA14 doesn't improve its chances.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #26 on: February 10, 2018, 04:17:34 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 10, 2018, 04:10:27 PM

If this became the map: (pickups in bold)

PA-1: Safe D
PA-2 Safe D
PA-3 Safe R
PA-4: Safe R
PA-5: Safe R
PA-6: Lean R (This is like Dave Brat's district)
PA-7: Likely D
PA-8: Lean R
PA-9: Safe R
PA-10: Safe R
PA-11: Likely R (Holden runs?)
PA-12: Lean R (Downballot Dem strength)
PA-13: Safe D
PA-14: Safe D
PA-15: Tossup
PA-16: Safe R (It's Lancaster County...)
PA-17: Likely R (Trump vs. Clinton #s are useless here)
PA-18: Safe R (in the general election)

So a Dem-Rep-Tossup split of 5-12-1


That's why Wolf is going to veto it. It still clearly favors the GOP.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2018, 12:02:33 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2018, 12:10:14 PM by PittsburghSteel »
That's Good. It was a horrible map, and Wolf's decision was expected.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2018, 01:50:25 PM »
The map is going to be court drawn now... the GOP really shot themselves in the foot.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2018, 01:08:32 PM »
I like it.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #30 on: February 15, 2018, 01:11:08 PM »
As somebody who lives in PA12, I HOPE they split Alleghany three ways.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #31 on: February 15, 2018, 02:03:07 PM »
Wolf's going to wait for the map the Stanford scholar is chalking up.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #32 on: February 15, 2018, 04:55:22 PM »
They should make the districts more competitive in the west.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #33 on: February 16, 2018, 09:48:08 AM »
It looks like Wolf is trying to make the 9th a little more competitive. That dash of blue in centre County is State College.

We know young people are energized and we are seeing massive D gains in margins so that is a smart move by Tom. 
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #34 on: February 16, 2018, 10:02:05 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on February 16, 2018, 09:54:45 AM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 16, 2018, 09:48:08 AM
It looks like Wolf is trying to make the 9th a little more competitive. That dash of blue in centre County is State College.

We know young people are energized and we are seeing massive D gains in margins so that is a smart move by Tom. 

I would think that the 9th can't get anywhere near the realm of competitiveness, even with State College.

Well obviously, but no doubt what his intentions are.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2018, 03:15:23 PM »

What do they have against Rothfus? Map B is his execution.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2018, 04:32:36 PM »
Are they trying to screw over Doyle in B?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #37 on: February 16, 2018, 07:11:50 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2018, 07:55:33 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Oryx what did you use to make your maps?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2018, 03:47:30 PM »
Wow, so this is a potential 4 seat pick up for the Democrats.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2018, 04:01:50 PM »
So it looks like Conor Lamb will be Rothfus's challenger in November. Rip Keith.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2018, 05:51:51 PM »
Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2018, 05:57:57 PM »
Quote from: Pessimistic Antineutrino on February 19, 2018, 05:55:04 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 19, 2018, 05:51:51 PM
Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2018, 06:03:29 PM »
Quote from: publicunofficial on February 19, 2018, 06:01:05 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 19, 2018, 05:57:57 PM
Quote from: Pessimistic Antineutrino on February 19, 2018, 05:55:04 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 19, 2018, 05:51:51 PM
Lamb would probably beat Rothfus.

Saccone is going to be a short-lived congressman. He's not beating Doyle.

Trump won the new 14th by 30 points - if Saccone wins the special, that seat is his. Doyle almost certainly runs in the new 18th.

Saccone's home will be in Doyle's 14. Unless he moves to the new 14 (old 18th) he's BTFO. The new PA17 (old 12th) voted for Trump by just a 3 point margin. Lamb would beat Rothfus.

You don't need to live in a district to represent it.

You kind of have to.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #43 on: February 19, 2018, 10:11:06 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2018, 10:36:28 PM by PittsburghSteel »
What I love about this map is that it keeps Lamb's political future alive. Whether he wins or loses in March, he's certain to challenge Rothfus in PA17. I would predict Conor would win that race due to the stark contrast in personality between him and Keith, and the national climate.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #44 on: February 20, 2018, 08:38:31 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2018, 09:11:53 AM by PittsburghSteel »
Quote from: Lord Mace Tyrell/ King Louis XIII on February 20, 2018, 07:14:16 AM
Anyway,
Here are my new ratings:
Meehan's district: Safe Dem
Costello's district: lean Dem
Dent's district: Lean dem
Fitzpatrick's district: Toss up
Rothfus's district: Lean rep
The open seat in Harrisburg: lean rep


Opinions of these new ratings?

Sounds good, but I think Harrisburg and Rothfus's seat will go Democrat, especially since Lamb will be his challenger.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #45 on: February 20, 2018, 09:21:41 AM »
Trump urging Republicans to challenge map. Clearly he doesn't understand what gerrymandering is.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #46 on: February 20, 2018, 09:32:56 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 20, 2018, 09:25:54 AM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 20, 2018, 09:21:41 AM
Trump urging Republicans to challenge map. Clearly he doesn't understand what gerrymandering is.



Trump's tweet will be used in court against Republicans.

He's such a dumbass.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #47 on: February 20, 2018, 09:46:53 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 20, 2018, 09:40:41 AM
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I really don't see this going anywhere after the Supreme Court already refused to stay.


Yep, and Trump's tweet makes it DOA if it already wasn't.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #48 on: February 20, 2018, 12:12:51 PM »
This map is pretty much final. Even with the Trump tweet, the Republican appeal is DOA.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #49 on: February 20, 2018, 07:43:32 PM »

Everyone expects the Republican appeal to be DOA.
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