Political Trends where you disagree with the Atlas Consensus

[TheSaint250]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

-The Democrats aren't going to magically become populist and libertarian-ish at the same time

Haven't heard this theory though people do believe that either one will come true.  I think they will become a Bernie-esque party.

-The Republicans will eventually moderate, but only on the "new cultural issues" like immigration, not the traditional ones

There's a good chance that the party moderates on SSM and abortion.

-Trumpism will die once Trump leaves office

It pretty much died a month after he took office.

-North Carolina will stay a Lean R state for the foreseeable future

I'm inclined to agree, but it's a strange state. We'll see how it continues to lean.

-Improvements with Hispanics will stabalize Texas and Florida for the GOP

This is certainly a possibility, but the GOP might not be able to shift the tide before it's too late.

-Georgia, however, is a solid long-term Democratic prospect.  I think they also become competitive in places like Montana and Alaska (and maybe Arizona with an East-West divide in the Hispanic vote), while most of the Midwest moves to the GOP.

You're right about Georgia, unless the GOP turns it around.  Montana might become more competitive, but probably not Alaska. I personally don't see it.

-The Democrats will eventually abolish the EC during a trifecta in the 2040s or so, once it becomes common that they keep winning the popular vote with ridiculous margins in California and New York, but rarely can win the EC.

Not sure about this one, but it could happen.

[TheSaint250]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

This is what I just don't get about 2020s realignment naysayers. Aside from the fact that the GOP's base of older whites will be significantly eroded by 'natural causes' in the mid-2020s, the arguments put forth by TD are very detailed and very plausible. I have some issues with some of the WWC theories, but still. I've never seen anyone put forth any sort of decent argument for why Republicans would somehow dominate for another generation or more. Like it literally doesn't add up. Where do the voters come from? Republicans magically win Democratic-leaning Millennials as they age? (a trend which is largely proven a myth). One consistent aspect of political parties seems to be that eventually a dominant party falls out of step, and refuses to adapt until they are pushed out of power, at which point it takes years to begin regaining influence among the growing parts of the electorate, as they have to change their appeal - sometimes significantly.

As it stands now, the Republican Party is like a poor, unskilled and lazy citizen who won a decent lottery in the 80s and has been almost completely living off of those funds ever since. Eventually you run out of voters money.

* ftr I'm not bitching at you, just ranting

I'm (clearly) not a political expert, so I've kinda been just feeling this out.  I just feel like the 2020s is too soon. The trends from 2016 will most likely not continue, and I think significant changes will more likely come in the 2030s.

[TheSaint250]

Disagree with:

-The Republican Party is going to be purely white people and the Democratic Party is going to be strictly minorities.

-Florida will eventually strongly lean towards Democrats.

[TheSaint250]

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2017/08/11/why-democrats-should-be-losing-sleep-over-generation-z/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/07/13/prof-gen-z-more-conservative-millennials/

http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/eric-metaxas/next-generation-americans-gen-z-may-be-most-conservative-wwii

There are many more out there.

Diversity doesn't mean "not conservative."  The NY Post one (I think it was that one) even said that the generation will be more socially tolerant than others, even as it is conservative.

[TheSaint250]

I was just citing the articles and that this isn't a ridiculous, out-there idea.

[TheSaint250]

A bunch of Republicans are not gonna vote for Democrats in 2018 just because they hate Trump.

"Trumpism" has not "taken over" the GOP.