United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[LabourJersey]

If Sunak calls for an election this week, would it be on June 6 or June 13? Unclear on the timeline.

[LabourJersey]

If Sunak calls for an election this week, would it be on June 6 or June 13? Unclear on the timeline.

It's not the timing of the election call which settles the date, it's the Dissolution of Parliament: the General Election is held 25 working days after the dissolution. Because of the public holidays on 6 May and 27 May, this means that for a 6 June election Parliament would have to be dissolved tomorrow (unlikely I think even if the now scotched rumours turn out to be true after all) and for a 13 June election it would be dissolved on Wednesday 8 May.

The Commons Library has a list of the dissolution dates for each possible General Election date. NB a public holiday in any part of the UK is excluded from the definition of "working day", which is why the days of the week shift from Thursday to Wednesday once 12 July comes into the election period.

Really helpful, thanks!

[LabourJersey]

What made Sunak decide to have a July election?

He's bad at politics and incredibly arrogant

More specifically - he apparently saw the rate of inflation has slightly slowed, and in his mind he thought "we're turning it around! Let's seize the momentum!"

Very dumb decision

[LabourJersey]

What made Sunak decide to have a July election?

He's bad at politics and incredibly arrogant

More specifically - he apparently saw the rate of inflation has slightly slowed, and in his mind he thought "we're turning it around! Let's seize the momentum!"

Very dumb decision

He should have waited to the fall to call the election. By doing it now it guarantees a Labour win.

I mean, practically any time would "guarantee" a Labour win at this rate. But this timing is particularly dumb.

[LabourJersey]

https://Twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793336678096019874?t=QU1_O62L4ZAVCm0P6r...

Selections are going to come fast now. Here's the Lib-Dems choosing someone asap for a target seat. And Corbyns former seat becomes even more of a stitch-up:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793378252154913030?t=l8uSukHrwSpAga0xdI...

what's the deadline for selections?

[LabourJersey]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Belfast East: boundary changes probably marginally help Alliance and they must have a decent chance

Belfast South & Mid Down: if it weren't for tactical voting this would be very interesting, but as it is the SDLP will probably hold comfortably

Belfast West: zzzzz

Belfast North: boundary changes help SF a little and in the absence of anything splitting their vote they should hold on

North Down: I think Farry (Alliance) is favoured but there is this challenge from Independent Unionist Alex Easton.

Strangford: boundary changes help Alliance (by bringing in heavily Catholic areas where they will hope to get tactical votes) but probably not by enough unless the DUP are having a real meltdown

Lagan Valley: I would be sceptical of Alliance's chances here if it weren't for the DUP's troubles, which I think give them a genuine chance

South Down: if the SDLP couldn't win this back in 2019 I doubt they do now

Newry & Armagh: see Belfast West

Upper Bann: DUP should be safe enough here

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: well, it's Fermanagh & South Tyrone, so close between SF and the UUP with the former favoured

West Tyrone: see Belfast West

Mid Ulster: see Belfast West

Foyle: I think the SDLP's huge win in 2019 was a one-off and SF are in with a chance of taking this back

East Derry: still pretty safe DUP

North Antrim: if the TUV were going to win anywhere it would be here, but I would be a bit surprised

East Antrim: another Alliance long shot, but I think it's less likely than Lagan Valley or Strangford

South Antrim: the UUP's best chance of taking a seat back from the DUP, and the latter's troubles mean they must actually have a decent chance

Interesting write-up. As someone who's visting NI in a couple weeks I'm very interested to see what it's like, particularly in campaign season

[LabourJersey]

Even if the Tories were re-elected, there would never be conscription in Northern Ireland. It's just not happening.

There wasn't in either World War for all the reasons that come to mind (as much about increasing the risk of Loyalist militias as enraging nationalists forced to swear allegiance to the King). An attempt to impose it in 1918 was never implemented after the uproar.

The relevance of NI is whether Sunak has a one sentence answer that justifies it not applying there, while being a requirement everywhere else.

Also curious about Sunak's evantual answer about this.

Would hardly be the first time that the Tories came up with a policy without considering the impact on NI.

[LabourJersey]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

Good, honestly. Don't want voters to get complacent. It's to the interest of both Labour and frankly, civic health, that people think the election is competitive even if it isn't.

Definitely agree with this.

[LabourJersey]

Debates schedule is starting to firm up:

• 3rd June (STV) - Scottish leaders debate
• 4th June (ITV) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate
• 7th June (BBC) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 12th June (Sky News) - townhall-style leaders event
• 13th June (ITV) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 20th June (BBC) - Question Time Leaders Special
• 26th June (BBC) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate

More devolved nation debates to be announced, but looks like most of the national events have been set.

I'll be in the UK for the June 12th debate (In Belfast, of all places!). Will be fascinating and surreal, as a longtime observer of UK politics, to be a first hand observer of a UK general election

[LabourJersey]

Interesting news from Tory selection in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Dan Jellyman was placed on a shortlist of one, but after the selection meeting he was not chosen. So no candidate, and no shortlist right now (deadline in less than 48 hours).

Given that they ought to have known there was a possibility of a vacancy there, that is borderline unbelievable.

What does the local Tory party do here? Are they logistically able to make a selection between now and 4pm Friday?

[LabourJersey]

It becomes a bit more believable when your incumbent only announces he's stepping down 10 days after the election announcement...

I suspect we will have at least one constituency without a Tory candidate due to some basic oversight or invalid signature. The Tories are lucky only 10 signatures are needed for candidacy -- in Canada in this situation they would be utterly cooked.

But isn't the point of shortlist for every constituency that parties don't have to deal with this situation?