United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Torrain]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

...

Is this someone pulling Crick's leg (again...) or is it real?

[Torrain]

Is this someone pulling Crick's leg (again...) or is it real?

Honestly, I'm still trying to work that out. No one else reporting it, but then that's been the case for most of the non-Abbott selections over the past week.

Stuck in this loop where Crick's initial point (selections are under-reported and might benefit from more scrutiny) holds up, but he's such an unreliable messenger that it leaves you looking for other sources, and then you remember...

[MABA 2020]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

lol I did not guess that

[TheTide]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

Perhaps the idea is that the electorate in the constituency will assume that she is David Cameron's sister.

[JimJamUK]

Stuck in this loop where Crick's initial point (selections are under-reported and might benefit from more scrutiny) holds up, but he's such an unreliable messenger that it leaves you looking for other sources, and then you remember...

He’s great at reporting a lot of things, but doesn’t exactly do so in a calm, factual way all the time…

[Thomas D]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1796633753931907396

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1796633753931907396

Desire the numbers in the graphics, it's actually (with tactical voting applied):

CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59

[WD]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?

[Gass3268]

Mother of God...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?

The old joke would have been something like 'proposes bringing back National Service', as it happens.

[TheTide]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

[bore]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

If true its presumably a case of running a paper campaign in a hopeless seat to get the redundancy payment that losing MPs get but retiring ones don't. The concern for the tories is that that would mean that somewhere with a 7000 majority that they have held for over 100 years is already complete written off..

[YL]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

If true its presumably a case of running a paper campaign in a hopeless seat to get the redundancy payment that losing MPs get but retiring ones don't. The concern for the tories is that that would mean that somewhere with a 7000 majority that they have held for over 100 years is already complete written off..

Crick is now reporting that the Tories have selected someone else in Wokingham. (Lucy Demery)

[Tintrlvr]

Its almost certainly not as many as 200 in reality, and few if any GB seats (the Speaker's excepted) won't have a Tory standing when nominations close a week from now.

I also can’t imagine them failing to nominate candidates in any seats they hold, and the number of seats they don’t hold where them not standing would matter is very small (maybe some SNP-Lab battles but there not 100% clear who it benefits, a few SNP-LD battles where the beneficiary is more clearly the LDs but the Tories seem to have nominated in all of them, and a few LD-Lab battles, although the only one of those I can think of is Sheffield Hallam, which incidentally does not seem to have a Tory candidate yet).

[MABA 2020]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

Everyone I've talked to about the election has basically been like "I think Labour might win" and when I say it's going to be another 97/over 400 seats it's met with scepticism, so no I don't think people are prepared for how bad it might be for the Tories.

[Oryxslayer]

So according to the people who actually do MRPs, this wasn't comparable to those? Some data people are dragging it for seemingly just plugging and chugging.

So I'm not sure what it tells us other than universal swing breaks under 20-point flips and a confirmation that tactical voting is a thing.

[Holmes]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?

Select the son of a former PM as their next leader.

[Estrella]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?

Select the son of a former PM as their next leader.

Well, if the electoral route doesn't work, Mark Thatcher does have some experience with coups.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

Good, honestly. Don't want voters to get complacent. It's to the interest of both Labour and frankly, civic health, that people think the election is competitive even if it isn't.

[Cassius]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?

[Blair]

It’s very strange in that anything below a 1997 style result for Labour will be met and presented as a disappointment but no-one is at all ready for the possibility that Labour could get north of 450!

Everyone has been reporting these huge poll leads but just assuming it will come down in a campaign because of ‘muh magic’ or ‘muh President Sunak’.

Like with the locals the thing that is making me think it could be a bigger landslide is the scale of Tory voters in safe seats (e.g ones they have held since 2005 or even 79!) who are not going to support them.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1796633753931907396

This is a massive majority. How are they going to govern with 500 or so MPs? Will they seek some revolutionary policies or rather try to brand themselves as the new natural party of governance?

[Torrain]

I know I've posted about the SNP's lack of advertising footprint, but there's detail in the Guardian that puts it into perspective:

Data on online election spending compiled by Who Targets Me has suggested that the SNP has spent tiny sums on campaign advertising in the last month, as it tries to compete against Scottish Labour, which is now ahead in polling.

Its figures show the SNP spent £811, or 2.6%, of the £31,000 paid for online advertising in the four weeks to Sunday 26 May. By contrast, Scottish Labour has spent £20,000, 64.5% of the total, and the Scottish Conservatives £8,950 (28.9%).

The Daily Mail has reported that SNP MSPs have been urged to offer free beds to party workers travelling from Westminster to work on the election as the party is unable to afford hotel beds.

[Torrain]

Beyond the sheer scale of the gap - the housing thing is raising eyebrows. The SNP government’s own laws on short-term lets could lead to their staffers receiving fines up to £2,500 (something the short-term let organisation ASSC has gleefully pounced on).

Using housing paid for by parliamentary expenses or ScotGov’s housing scheme for explicitly political purposes is also a rather blatant breach of the rules…