It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.
All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.
It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.
With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.
South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.
There is literally one state senate seat and two assembly seats left that they could gain in south Jersey.
Yeah that’s what I mean. They are gonna lose those Biden +15 suburban seats soon and South Jersey doesn’t have much left in terms of pickups.
Geography has also helped Dems in NJ a ton since the Trump era began. You can easily draw an 11-1 map without absurd lines. The GOP vote is so packed into Ocean these days.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8d3445f0-1549-47ec-8397-a1ca62ef3c41
It's pretty interesting that an almost maximal GOP pack in NJ can be perfectly compact Ocean County + the red towns of Monmouth. Ocean is becoming more and more of a pack each cycle. I think the GOP eclipsed 70% in Ocean in 2022.
The Trump GOP is practically designed to appeal to the residents of Ocean County, New Jersey. All of the demographic, economic & cultural elements that make the county unique are ones that are more supportive of Trump/indicative of Trump support.
