NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[LabourJersey]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

I am pretty sure this would require an amendment to our constitution.

Well amend away! Don't we have supermajorities?

EDIT: I guess it would take too long to organize and put it on the ballot. We have the numbers though but not for long since I think GOP won enough to break Dems supermajority.

I'm not really sure why Murphy would agree to this and cut his governorship a year short lol

He could just extend his governorship a year. Wait until 2026 and set the gov race to midterms. It would be a lot less popular than setting it in 2024 but it's possible I guess

[LabourJersey]

I'm kind of surprised no one has mentioned Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.

She wants to be Senator

[LabourJersey]

I'm kind of surprised no one has mentioned Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.

She wants to be Senator

It could be a while before a seat opens up. She could try to be Governor first. However, Governor of New Jersey has not proven to be a useful stepping stone, a Governor has not gone to the Senate since A. Harry Moore, and that was a different era.

I was under the impression that Menendez will retire or will be forced out by the NJ Dem bigwigs in 2024. Then again I could be wrong but I've heard this a few times after how underwhelming he was in 2018.

If he does leave in 2024 than Sherill's the obvious candidate. If any of the current House members want to be Governor it's probably Gottheimer, though he want make the Senate seat too.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1619433003222179841

Not a chance he wins a statewide primary

I wouldn't be so sure. If there's a very crowded primary (which is entirely possible), gets the Bergen County line, and the Central and South Jersey Dems squabble, I could definitely see him squeaking by with 25-30% of the vote.

I don't want that to happen since I dislike him, but he could absolutely become Governor if a couple things go his way.

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

Basically this, plus he's a prickly and standoffish dude in a way that other NJ Dems (Sherill, Murphy, Booker) are very much not.

[LabourJersey]

Fulop appears to be replicating Murphy's 2017 strategy: get in comically (but strategically) early, begin consolidating support fast to outmaneuver the machine bosses, raise money on the IE side (his super PAC already has $8+ million in the bank) to both help allies win legislative races and build relationships with donors for the official campaign side, and simply outwork the other potential candidates (all of whom have more time-consuming jobs) on the ground and ideally keep them out of the primary altogether.

Great point in the comparison with Murphy. I forgot that he got in during May of 2016. The difference though was that Murphy was essentially a blank slate to people: Fulop is known in Jersey politics, and some people love and some hate him.