That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.
That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.
Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991
While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.
The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.
Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.
There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.
Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.
I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).
A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.
There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.
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