NJ-02 (Monmouth): Kennedy +6

[LabourJersey]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

That's fair. Redistricting in 2022 is going to be tricky, but if Kennedy wins next month she'll start out as the most vulnerable incumbent in NJ.

My guess is that Malinowski will go into Biden's State Dept., and they will create a GOP district in the northwest part of the state, taking in conservative areas of NJ-7, NJ-11 and maybe NJ-5. Sherill will get the Union County parts of NJ-7 to make her more safe. Kim's district is kind of a wild card but he would also be very vulnerable in 2022 unless he gets a much more Democratic district, which I don't see happening cause of South Jersey geography

[LabourJersey]

Hilarious as he’s pretty much given a house seat to a loyal generic democrat foot soldier.

He could have stayed and voted against everything but he’s too vain for that.

Like I've said before, he's not a smart man. When he cast his ballot for Speaker, instead of picking a person other than Pelosi he voted "NO"

[LabourJersey]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

That's fair. Redistricting in 2022 is going to be tricky, but if Kennedy wins next month she'll start out as the most vulnerable incumbent in NJ.

My guess is that Malinowski will go into Biden's State Dept., and they will create a GOP district in the northwest part of the state, taking in conservative areas of NJ-7, NJ-11 and maybe NJ-5. Sherill will get the Union County parts of NJ-7 to make her more safe. Kim's district is kind of a wild card but he would also be very vulnerable in 2022 unless he gets a much more Democratic district, which I don't see happening cause of South Jersey geography

Makes sense, maybe give Sherill a lot of blue trending Somerset County and make NJ-11 Safe D.

Also a possibility. Though I think the Commission will have to include a lot of Democratic trending areas if they want to make a Lean/Likely R seat in Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex/Morris

[LabourJersey]

LOVE this. LOVE.

Hopefully some day....

Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator Kennedy of New Jersey

And then maybe....
Representative Schlossberg from Connecticut
Senator Shriver from California
Representative Kennedy-Cuomo from New York.

The dream shall never die.

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

South Jersey Democrats are at a disadvantage in primaries because the center of gravity, so to speak, of the NJ Democratic electorate skews toward the central and northern parts of the state. Kennedy would have name recognition, for sure, but she'd have to make a lot of inroads with the north Jersey crowd to get anywhere.

[LabourJersey]

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

It'll be me. I'm gonna primary Menendez in 2030. /s

If Menendez is unpopular as he is now you'll pull off an upset for sure