NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[LabourJersey]

I assume it's because the democrats are in power in D.C and it's not exactly an easy job but I'm always surprised at how relatively weak/low-key/inexperienced the democratic benches seem to be in every primary going back what 20-30 years?

Is there a reason for that?

Nationally or just in New York City?

New York City! I guess it's probably related to people always going for the easier life that a safe NYC congressional seat gives you or the more powerful position state wide.

Being mayor of New York City has all the stresses of being a governor of a big state with only a fraction of the benefits and power.

Being a big-city mayor in the US in general is a pretty thankless task, since most of the biggest problems that cities suffer from can't be solved at just a local level, and often they're hamstrung by either the state or the federal governments, or machine-type City Council and civil servants that don't have much interest in changing the status quo.

[LabourJersey]

Yang will be the next Mayor.

That's my prediction and I am sticking with it.

It's possible, but RCV makes a Yang victory much less likely than if the old system was still in effect.

Yang could probably have gotten to the old-style runoff just on name rec alone. But RCV means people who don't like Yang/don't think he's experienced enough can coordinate in a way that would probably prevent him from getting 50% plus 1

[LabourJersey]

Yang will be the next Mayor.

That's my prediction and I am sticking with it.

It's possible, but RCV makes a Yang victory much less likely than if the old system was still in effect.

Yang could probably have gotten to the old-style runoff just on name rec alone. But RCV means people who don't like Yang/don't think he's experienced enough can coordinate in a way that would probably prevent him from getting 50% plus 1

This is a relatively small constituency.

Not really? there's definitely people who think it he's a little out of touch with average people (that whole line about "who would live in a 2 bedroom apartment with small children, right?" that became kinda viral on Twitter). But the larger constituency are those who just don't think he has the skillset to be a good mayor

[LabourJersey]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I don't think it's necessarily about dislike for Yang: it's skepticism that he would be a competent mayor.

He can talk about a "humanity-focused economy" and mention UBIs and that casino on Governor's Island, but that doesn't really make people think Yang can take on the very real problems that New York City faces

[LabourJersey]

Would I be right in assuming that the only candidates with any chance at beating Yang are Adams, Stringer and perhaps Wiley?

[LabourJersey]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

Reminds me of the VP hate on Atlas, although I think the Kamala hate on here was a bit more rooted in her race and gender. Some of the Yang hate might be racially/ethnically motivated (not really on Twitter so I can't assess that front), but I don't think it's a factor on Atlas. I get (and kind of agree with) what he was trying to say in that op-ed, but yeah it wasn't going to jive well with Asian Americans who've experienced more overt racism and bullying from non-Asians.

He would definitely be a more positive and competent leader than the 2016 GOP presidential primary candidate his campaign is reminiscent of (not that that means much). Haven't been following the race super closely, but I don't think the support he's garnered from landlords says as much about how his adminstration would go as people are suggesting.

Not sure if that's the best comparison. People online weren't fans of Harris because they felt she wasn't the type of progressive/had the type of background that people wanted in a Democratic nominee.

People dislike Yang because he's not qualified to be Mayor, and people also dislike how much he's dominating the talk about the mayoral race (which has pretty dramatically cut off the oxygen for non-Yang candidates, which is exaggerated since the lack of ground game cause of COVID).

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/patkiernan/status/1384110763883696134

The details here are pretty interesting. People's choices don't seem to be particularly driven by ideology.

Morales voters go to Wiley-Adams/Yang-McGuire/Stringer in that order, though roundoff error means it could be just a split but with a distinct preference for Stringer.
McGuire voters are  split between Adams, Stringer, and Yang.
Similarly Adams voters spit between Stringer and Yang.

That's not terribly surprising. People are still learning a lot about candidates and average voters don't differentiate the candidates to the degree that we on this site do.

But also some people have focus on things beyond ideology that matter. Like if I was an NYC voter I would definitely want a Mayor that's ready on Day 1 and my top 2 would be Garcia and Stringer, even though Garcia is considered to be much less progressive than Stringer (I'd disagree a little on that but that's not too important).

Also there's plenty of cases picking candidates of the same geography (some Progressive Brooklynites may be going for Adams just because) and of course same race (it's getting pretty obvious that many Asian New Yorkers like Yang for representational reasons)

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/patkiernan/status/1384110763883696134

The details here are pretty interesting. People's choices don't seem to be particularly driven by ideology.

Morales voters go to Wiley-Adams/Yang-McGuire/Stringer in that order, though roundoff error means it could be just a split but with a distinct preference for Stringer.
McGuire voters are  split between Adams, Stringer, and Yang.
Similarly Adams voters spit between Stringer and Yang.

That's not terribly surprising. People are still learning a lot about candidates and average voters don't differentiate the candidates to the degree that we on this site do.

But also some people have focus on things beyond ideology that matter. Like if I was an NYC voter I would definitely want a Mayor that's ready on Day 1 and my top 2 would be Garcia and Stringer, even though Garcia is considered to be much less progressive than Stringer (I'd disagree a little on that but that's not too important).

Also there's plenty of cases picking candidates of the same geography (some Progressive Brooklynites may be going for Adams just because) and of course same race (it's getting pretty obvious that many Asian New Yorkers like Yang for representational reasons)

I said "dispreference", not "distinct preference". Is there a reason why you changed it?

woops--thought that distinct preference is what you meant there. Went back after I posted and realized I was wrong

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/emmagf/status/1384824582335565824?s=21

As a pretty solid front runner, this won’t be the last semi-opportunistic endorsement that Yang gets (Menchaca is term limited and wants some appointment job or Yang’s support in some future run). Politicians flock to a perceived winner.

Seems pretty damning for Stringer, though, given he would have been the obvious choice for Menchaca to endorse. Suggests that Manchaca really does think Yang is guaranteed to win

[LabourJersey]

Maya Wiley is the only candidate (outside Yang) with pins in their store so she should win

Yangs pins are really nice tho its taking a lot not to buy them

I believe all official Yang merch is available just to people with an NYC mailing and shipping address, which is weirdly restrictive but probably a sign of Yang's campaign being very insecure with being seen as a candidate with fans only outside of the City.

[LabourJersey]

^ Neither of you live in NYC. I actually have to work for the city that Yang would govern and I'm not looking forward to it!

Anyways...it seems Stringer has decided that since he cannot come up with a reason for people to vote *for* him, he is hoping that Dianne Morales comes up with one.

Eh, he's clearly a progressive with governing experience. That's a good reason to vote for someone!

I think he's not doing tremendously in getting that message out, but I think that has a lot to do with Yang sucking up so much media oxygen in this race, and the minimal impact that grassroots politicking has on this race compared to previous years.

[LabourJersey]

Frontrunner
Andrew Yang
Competitors
Eric Adams, Scott Stringer
Periphery of Competition
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire
Field
Shaun Donovan, Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia

Here is my current breakdown, I've adjusted it to better reflect the state of the race. There's three people with a chance, two people who might break into the top tier, a field of people vying to get into competition, and one guy who just stays in the lead.

How set is the field?

Well, I'm pretty sure that nobody other than Yang, Stringer, and Adams actually has a chance. Wiley could get in, but not getting the UFT endorsement was a big blow for her. As for the rest, it's hard to predict how they will sort out. McGuire looks like he has some momentum, Morales might, it's hard to tell. But none of them will win.



Oh, and here is a congressional endorsements map. Stringer has 3 (Bowman, Nadler, Espaillat), Wiley has 2 (Clarke, Velazquez), McGuire has 1 (Meeks), Yang has 1 (Torres), and Adams has 1 (Suozzi).

Didn't know that Meeks endorsed McGuire! I knew Meeks wouldn't endorse Adams given the two have a little history of mutual dislike, but I'm surprised he went with a candidate that doesn't look all that viable.

[LabourJersey]

If this blows up and isn't discredited, it makes Mayor Yang or Adams all but inevitable. But we'll see.

[LabourJersey]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1387220748843077633

Can this solidify Daddy Yang?(I'm going to get a lot of hate, am I?)

Sadly yes.

[LabourJersey]

I'm surprised Maya Wiley isn't connecting more. Why is that?

I think she'd be a really strong candidate if the race was happening in 2019 or in 2022. Her campaign would really thrive at a time when you could do a lot of grassroots outreach among young people and progressives in all 5 boroughs and get a lot of media attention out of it.

But sadly the ground game is kneecapped because of COVID, and Yang is taking up what little media oxygen there is for the race.

[LabourJersey]

I'm surprised Maya Wiley isn't connecting more. Why is that?

I think she'd be a really strong candidate if the race was happening in 2019 or in 2022. Her campaign would really thrive at a time when you could do a lot of grassroots outreach among young people and progressives in all 5 boroughs and get a lot of media attention out of it.

But sadly the ground game is kneecapped because of COVID, and Yang is taking up what little media oxygen there is for the race.

Ehhhh, between Warren 2020 and Cruz 2016 in primaries, and Clinton 2016 vs. Biden 2020 in the GE, I think it's time to accept that ground game is vastly overrated.  A likely Yang win in NYC would just solidify that.  A low turnout primary in the densest city in the country is where you could make the strongest argument that ground game should be decisive.  If it isn't, it's time to accept that "ground game" is mostly a permanent employment program for consultants and activists.

I'd agree that ground game has diminished as an advantage in social media times, but that's not what I meant there.

Don't you think that if COVID wasn't happening, this race would be very different?

Yang's biggest advantage is name recognition. That's accentuated when most people are at home and don't want to go out and knock on doors for candidates.

I'd wager that the election would be a lot more competitive if things were normal. Especially because of RCV, which I think promotes voter outreach a lot more than FPTP since a pleasant interaction means a voter may change their 2nd or 3rd choice and that would actually matter.

[LabourJersey]

I'm surprised Maya Wiley isn't connecting more. Why is that?

I think she'd be a really strong candidate if the race was happening in 2019 or in 2022. Her campaign would really thrive at a time when you could do a lot of grassroots outreach among young people and progressives in all 5 boroughs and get a lot of media attention out of it.

But sadly the ground game is kneecapped because of COVID, and Yang is taking up what little media oxygen there is for the race.

Ehhhh, between Warren 2020 and Cruz 2016 in primaries, and Clinton 2016 vs. Biden 2020 in the GE, I think it's time to accept that ground game is vastly overrated.  A likely Yang win in NYC would just solidify that.  A low turnout primary in the densest city in the country is where you could make the strongest argument that ground game should be decisive.  If it isn't, it's time to accept that "ground game" is mostly a permanent employment program for consultants and activists.

I'd agree that ground game has diminished as an advantage in social media times, but that's not what I meant there.

Don't you think that if COVID wasn't happening, this race would be very different?

Yang's biggest advantage is name recognition. That's accentuated when most people are at home and don't want to go out and knock on doors for candidates.

I'd wager that the election would be a lot more competitive if things were normal. Especially because of RCV, which I think promotes voter outreach a lot more than FPTP since a pleasant interaction means a voter may change their 2nd or 3rd choice and that would actually matter.

Not really.

If anything, RCV makes voter outreach/turnout operations less effective.  It effectively over-represents high info voters and the very politically engaged, because low info and infrequent voters are much more likely to just check their top choice and walk out.  It's the main reason I prefer separate runoff elections over RCV.  Making voting more complicated is generally bad.

I see people always say RCV is "more complicated" and I genuinely don't get that, particularly in primaries.

Most primary voters see a field as big as the NYC mayoral field and probably like multiple candidates, and like some more than others. For primary voters I don't see what would they find complicated. Maybe they might find picking the 3rd vs. 4th choices but they will still pick them.

[LabourJersey]

Scott's campaign is now saying they had a brief consensual relationship.

So, yeah I'm done. This no longer constitutes a denial and is thus unacceptable, and I'm not gonna be the volunteer on the street explaining this to voters, many of whom are women and may be survivors.

So, yeah, I'll either by helping Lander or returning to the sidelines.

Sorry to hear that. You and the other staffers and volunteers must feel so betrayed by this, especially just 5 weeks from the primary

[LabourJersey]

WFP and multiple state legislators have rescinded endorsements.

How long will Stringer stay in at this rate?

Though I guess RCV would mitigate the impact of a zombie Stringer campaign that somehow lasts til election day.

[LabourJersey]

Unrelated to the recent topic of discussion, but still news: Yang says that he'll approach Garcia about joining his administration, should he win the mayoralty.

Not surprising since she seems like a very competent public manager.

But obviously why vote Yang in order to maybe get Garcia running the City when you could simply vote for Garcia for mayor?

[LabourJersey]

Unrelated to the recent topic of discussion, but still news: Yang says that he'll approach Garcia about joining his administration, should he win the mayoralty.

Not surprising since she seems like a very competent public manager.

But obviously why vote Yang in order to maybe get Garcia running the City when you could simply vote for Garcia for mayor?

Because you can do both! The goal here isn't to peel off Garcia #1 or #2 voters, it's to get them to put Yang above Adams for #4 or #5.

With instant runoff and how few front-runners their seems to be (At the moment), being someone's first or second choice isn't nearly as important as not being their last or second-to-last choice

That's a fair point.

[LabourJersey]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

[LabourJersey]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Also Adams is much more of a known/stable quantity. Yang is very technocratic with some impulses that the left doesn't like, but it's not impossible that he may be a more conventionally progressive mayor than he seems depending on who he surrounds himself with at Gracie Mansion

[LabourJersey]

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

Why not second preference Garcia, the one candidate you didn't mention?

Also "NYC is getting what it deserves" sounds...harsh?

[LabourJersey]

Latest Change Research poll has Garcia?!?!?! surging into third, and a 50/50 tie between Yang and Adams in the last round. Morales at 5% and eliminated in third round.

Guess subscribers read their New York Times and now know who Garcia is.