Conservative leadership election

[LabourJersey]

So since the Tory MPs essentially decide on the top 2 candidates, what makes people think Boris is the front-runner? He seems to be hated by pretty much every MP--isn't it likely that they all vote strategically so he's not in the top 2?

[LabourJersey]

Do we know when the first ballot will be held on Thursday? Will we know the results as soon as they're counted or would we have to wait?

[LabourJersey]

From a British perspective:

Johnson = Biden (biggest frontrunner, gets all the attacks, but he's actually unstoppable and everyone should rally behind him because only he will defeat our evil opponents!)
Hunt = Warren (all about delivering things, electability concerns, no apparent voter base but still doing well)
Gove = Klobuchar (not the best past, not an especially engaging or impressive figure to the wider electorate, but a middle of the road candidate)
Raab = Booker (one of the first to declare, was seen as absolutely amazing for about a day, otherwise not gained any traction, very limited selection of food eaten.)
Javid = Harris (adopting the 'least successful frontrunner' role)
Stewart = Buttigieg (look how great this guy nobody had ever previously heard of is)
Hancock = Beto (uses technology for everything, 'young and dynamic,' but in reality is not the person anybody is looking for)
McVey = Bernie (undecided on how revolutionary they are, pretty polarising, underperforming)
Harper = Ryan (is the candidate who 'hasn't been a part of all the failings of leadership', kinda liked but pretty average)
Leadsom = Inslee (talks about climate change, generally liked by all, just not enough, but will still do slightly better than expected)
Malthouse = Bennet (sort of in the middle of everything, and he may not be the frontrunner, but he's actually what we're looking for, apparently)
Cleverly = Ojeda (military figure, claimed to have millions of supporters, but then dropped out, because they weren't actually doing well)
Gyimah = Delaney (minor figure, opposes the direction of the party completely, pretty unremarkable)

How far do you agree with me?

Trying to compare the Democratic field to the Conservative candidates is just so absurd, not least cause this is initially an MP-only vote and so a lot of the primary dynamic would never apply if, say, only Democratic members of congress voted for the top 2.

I do like the comparison between Buttigieg and Rory Stewart, though.

[LabourJersey]

I'm guessing the debates hurt Stewart?

I saw some segments and it seemed like Stewart was extremely uncomfortable, more so than maybe any politician I've seen in a debate format.

[LabourJersey]

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

[LabourJersey]

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

That part is the crux and probably the most likely reason such a gambit would fail. For all their bluster, the Tories' support for no deal when they've had to record a vote on it is ambivalent at best. They split almost in half on the no-deal indicative vote back in March and only 34 or so voted against May's deal the third time around, which ostensibly would have resulted in a no-deal if May hadn't asked for an extension (I know it's not that straightforward, but still).

A Tory Party pursuing no deal would likely see a few dozen MPs refuse to stand or pledge to oppose the manifesto, possibly leading to their deselection. Unless they made some arrangement with the Brexit Party (I think this is highly unlikely), it could produce a 'Canadian PCs in 1993' kind of meltdown.

That could probably be the most satisfying election result in a long, long time