Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.
Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.
I really, deeply disagree with the idea that most people think the economy is "getting better." People are aware of issues of inequality, and regardless of their political leanings think it's a bad thing. I also think there's plenty of nervousness about when the next recession will come, which we saw during that super short Wall Street crash just before Christmas.
People definitely do not feel as positive about the economy now as they did in April 2003.
