2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[LabourJersey]

What are the chances that Trump loses AZ and McSally wins and vice versa?

I'm guessing it would be low, given the strong correlation (not exact but strong) between how Democrats did in WI, PA and NH in 2016 compared to Clinton's performance in those states.

They'll be aberrations but I think voting for Senators in presidential elections is pretty much the same as voting for POTUS in those election years

[LabourJersey]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategy of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

This seat is up in 2022 (remember, it's a special to fill McCain's old seat).