IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[LabourJersey]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Also I think Greenfield is a fine candidate, but Franken has a lot of upside in his background. I also think the pandemic is probably going to draw voters to more "leadership" types, so I think candidates like Franken, Scott Kelly etc and incumbents like Sherill in NJ and Luria in VA are poised to take advantage of that sentiment

[LabourJersey]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

[LabourJersey]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Not to mention the fact that Missouri is a more Republican state than Iowa.