Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Torie]

27% of voters independent.  Seems good news for Obama.

In the 2004 Wisconsin Dem presidential primary, 29% of the voters were independent, and 9% GOP.

[Torie]

First Word on Wisconsin Exits

I'm hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.

From Campaign Spot

[Torie]

These are going to be some very interesting results...unless people are telling the truth about candidate selections but not demographics, or vice-versa, Obama has made some in-roads into traditional Clinton demographics.

Hey, I know all the counties in Wisconsin that are more than 50% Catholic (mostly the ones just south of Green Bay), and they don't have any towns like Bronxville in them.

[Torie]

Obama winning by 20% or close to it, if such ensues, will probably be a fatal blow for Clinton. This is her charge up Cemetery Hill. This is the Florida of the GOP primary. The Dem nomination from here on out won't be much more interesting than the GOP one.

[Torie]

Well, whatever the analogy, Clinton as a fighting force after losing Wisconsin by more than 15% will have been hollowed out, and the only remaining issue to resolve is her capacity for self abuse and embarrassment.   Of course, if Obama really IS a gay crack head, I guess she can be reanimated.

[Torie]

In looking at the numbers, I don't care what the exit polls say. A huge number of Republicans voted in the Dem primary, and fattened Obama's margin. Look at Waukesa (sp) county, a heavily GOP county (Milwaukee suburbs to the west). The turnout there will be about 80,000, versus 50,000 in 2004, and 3-2 over the GOP turnout. It would have been a pretty close election on the Dem side without the GOP crossover. And it shows how weak Huckabee is north of the Mason Dixon line. McCain won big even with a lot of more moderate Pubbies voting for Obama.

[Torie]

One other thing. Obama is doing just fine in working class Catholic Counties, Alcon. I see no difference. Indeed, Hillary is doing better in rural counties that are more Lutheran.

[Torie]

It would have been a pretty close election on the Dem side without the GOP crossover.

Obama is going to win Wisconsin by a 13%-16% margin. It's ridiculous to claim that it was because of GOP crossover.

OK, whatever. I made my case that the margin would have been considerably narrower without Pubbie action. You just say I am wrong. How helpful.

[Torie]

It would have been a pretty close election on the Dem side without the GOP crossover.

Obama is going to win Wisconsin by a 13%-16% margin. It's ridiculous to claim that it was because of GOP crossover.

OK, whatever. I made my case that the margin would have been considerably narrower without Pubbie action. You just say I am wrong. How helpful.

Why is Obama running lower in Waukesha and the GOP suburbs than the blue collar counties then?

Fair point. Maybe a bunch of Pubbies voted for Hillary.

[Torie]

Results by   CD for those who might be interested. Obama's margin is paper thin in two CD's. Someone else can figure out the delegates awarded for the Dems. On the GOP side, Huckabee is in the hunt in two CD's and six delegates