Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Aizen]

Top concerns for those voting in the WI Democratic Primary:

Economy 43%

War In Iraq 29%

Healthcare 25%

Income Levels:

Over $50,000 59%

Under $50,000 41%

Is that a big number for healthcare? Because that is what Hillary has been hammering for the most part in WI...

[exopolitician]

Inernational Trade:
70% takes away jobs
17% doesnt take away jobs
9% indifferent



...I think thats how that played out...I might be wrong

[Alcon]

Income Levels:

Over $50,000 59%

Under $50,000 41%

I'd heard this was supposed to be about 50/50?

[agcatter]

Well, the income levels may bode well for Obama.

Maybe the Economy vs Iraq split is better for Hillary although iraq has been fading for awhile and was much less an issue in Va where Obama won overwhelmingly.

I dunno.

[Ben.]

Politico & Ben Smith's take for what its worth...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[© tweed]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What?! I don't think that's ever happened before...

[exopolitician]

MSNBC seems to be comparing Wisconsin to Ohio alot tonight.

[elcorazon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What?! I don't think that's ever happened before...

what usually happens?

[agcatter]

27% of voters independent.  Seems good news for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Income Levels:

Over $50,000 59%

Under $50,000 41%

Good for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What?! I don't think that's ever happened before...

what usually happens?

Well, apparently Obama won that in Virginia, so nevermind. But I thought that Clinton always won that question.

[Alcon]

Yes, it has.

In the Maryland exit poll (random choice):

- 46% of voters said Clinton was most qualified, and they split Clinton 79%, Obama 18%
- 50% said Obama was most qualified, and they split Obama 96%, Clinton 1%

The Maryland model indicates that the exit poll will come out Obama 57%, Clinton 43%.

Virginia model would have Obama winning by a bit more.

It's looking like a double-digit win, quite possibly.

[minionofmidas]

The Maryland model indicates that the exit poll will come out Obama 57%, Clinton 43%.

I predicted that!

[Verily]

Maryland was also closed. The dynamics will be different in an open race.

[Angel of Death]

Anything above Obama+15% will be beyond expectations.

[Verily]

I've been overhearing a lot of idiots that think you vote in both the Democratic and Republican primaries so I'm going to suspect there are a bunch of ballots in college's spoiled because people are stupid.

In Wisconsin, the machine spits out any ballot that is marked for both parties, and the officials allow you to vote again (albeit in a very annoyed manner). I've read quite a few anecdotal accounts of exactly that happening today. The ballot is confusing, with both parties on there, but it's basically impossible to spoil your ballot accidentally by voting for both parties.

[Alcon]

Maryland was also closed. The dynamics will be different in an open race.

The Virginia model comes out to:

Obama 57.6%
Clinton 38.4%

Or a margin of a little over 18 points.

[Mr. Morden]

Additional exit poll info here:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4312579&page=1

"a substantial majority of Democratic voters are women, more than usual for a Wisconsin Democratic primary....In the Democratic race, nearly half the voters are liberals -- up from 2004......The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race -- up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle, though again it'll take final data later tonight to see that holds."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a "college degree." They're "less affluent" than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
-- Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care... adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.

All of that is, I think, to be expected of Wisconsin.

[Verily]

Maryland was also closed. The dynamics will be different in an open race.

The Virginia model comes out to:

Obama 57.6%
Clinton 38.4%

Or a margin of a little over 18 points.

Not saying that the Virginia model is necessarily a better indication than Maryland. Just that you may have lots of Republicans and conservative independents who probably wouldn't actually vote for either in the GE who have to make a split-second choice of which would be "more competent".

[Torie]

27% of voters independent.  Seems good news for Obama.

In the 2004 Wisconsin Dem presidential primary, 29% of the voters were independent, and 9% GOP.

[Torie]

First Word on Wisconsin Exits

I'm hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.

From Campaign Spot

[Alcon]

These are going to be some very interesting results...unless people are telling the truth about candidate selections but not demographics, or vice-versa, Obama has made some in-roads into traditional Clinton demographics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only 27% deciding in the last seven days is good for Obama.