Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Torie]

Delegates:

Edwards 37%
Clinton 32%
Obama 31%

Entrance polls:

Obama 32%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 27%
Others 12%

[Torie]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

[Torie]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

Nope.  The delegate numbers will naturally be a little higher for Edwards.

I simply see some late-breaking Obama momentum, in combination with good weather and a Hillary who seems to be no one's second choice.

I could be "dead" wrong, however.  This one is not easy.

Well since we won't know the raw numbers of first choices, except from the entrance polls (the Dems don't like disclosing that), I guess we will never know.  All we will "know" is delegate percentages. It is either that or entrance polls. There is nothing else out there.

[Torie]

Made this prediction on a blog earlier today, and am too lazy to check in to update it.

Clinton 32%
Edwards 28%
Obama 27%

Romney 29%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 23%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

I'm quite sure that it will be wrong.

Ya, 23% for McCain is way out there.

[Torie]

Entrance polls:

Obama 33%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 26%
Others 13%

Delegates:

Obama 38%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 30%
Others 2%

[Torie]

The tracking polls are in direct conflict on Hillary versus Obama, per politicalwire.com. One has Obama up by a lot, another Clinton up by a lot. Insider advantage shown on Real Clear Politics taken yesterday has the big three nearly tied: Obama 34%, Edwards 33%, and Clinton 32%. 

[Torie]

Entrance polls:

Obama 33%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 26%
Others 13%

Is that your prediction of entrance polls? I don't see how there can be any out THIS early.

Yes, it is my prediction.