Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

OK I will bite. What is your Goldilocks level of aid to Ukraine if at a level different from what is currently in place?

[Torie]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

OK I will bite. What is your Goldilocks level of aid to Ukraine if at a level different from what is currently in place?

My personal opinion would be: I want the level of USA economic and military aid to Ukraine to be $0.
 I view this as an Eastern Slavic civil war.  I wish both sides the best of luck and will let them go at it and may the best side win.

Thank you for your most candid response. That translates into Ukraine becoming a Russian province, with the number of Ukrainians continuing to live there as opposed to fleeing or being killed uncertain.

What is your perfect policy as to taking Ukrainian refugees in?

[Torie]

I was not personally familiar with J's views as to the two questions I asked, and make no apology in asking them.

And yes, the answers did surprise me, in part because he implied with with the US out of the picture (don't know about the rest of NATO), he seemed to fantasize about a fair fight rather than near instant Ukrainian collapse.

The takeaway from such a point of view is that smaller more vulnerable nations should get nukes ASAP. Otherwise they are essentially pawns for the predators to play with.

[Torie]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

You can't have any offensives in Ukraine if the temperature is between 35-75F, the ground will be too muddy and any mechanized force will be stuck on narrow roads.

Anyway tanks have been mostly useless in war since the Toyota War, and fighter jets since Iraq.

No modern army has won a proper war since 1991, and before that WW2, all victorious armies have been highly trained and equiped motorised militias.

It's what lead to massive Ukrainian victories over the Russian army in 2022.

They need lots and lots of pickup trucks and hand-held missiles, not tanks and jets that are easy targets.

Look at how easy precision Rocket Artilley (HIMARS) has replaced the Airforce, and Javelins the tanks.

That particular war entirely escaped my notice.

[Torie]

That I think absent more Russian military reverses, was always going to be the deal provided Russia accepted more formal defense arrangements between NATO and Ukraine.

[Torie]

Sorry to interrupt the narrative here of gloom and doom, and the good guys dying in the mud as they struggle unsuccessfully to escape from the pincer noose and are cut down, but:

After months of epic struggle, the fight over the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut had seemed in recent days to be reaching a climax, with Russian forces close to encircling the city and some Ukrainian units pulling out.

Then, early Saturday, Ukrainian assault brigades went on the attack. Over the weekend, hundreds of troops joined the counteroffensive, mounting assaults from the ground and pounding Russian positions with artillery from the surrounding hills.

Even before Ukraine stepped up its attack on Russians in Bakhmut on the weekend, its forces had moved to beat Russian troops back from the last main highway into the city. That preserved both a supply line that has helped Ukrainian soldiers tie down the Russian offensive for months and an exit route for them should they decide to retreat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-battle.html

And this is why those who want the West to cut Ukraine loose will be sorely disappointed. These guys have courage and guts, no matter the personal cost, no matter that it is leaving their country in ruins as Putin focuses on destroying its infrastructure, the stuff that makes a place habitable by humans.

That is inspirational, and inspiration is the most valued coin of the realm – it’s priceless. It is not subject to being a line item on a balance sheet or income statement.

[Torie]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

[Torie]

I like the theory of what happened but still don’t have a clue how it hit the nets unless there was a anti Putin mole in the Russian food chain on this one. It’s really bad, bad PR for Putin’s cause.

[Torie]

I do think Putin has a long view, and saw the window of opportunity to consummate his demonic vision closing and closing rapidly. Why? Due to his perceived Russian demographic implosion. You see, for quite a long time now Russia's stagnant population was sustained by net immigration, presumably from the former Soviet Republics. Now what? Net immigration is negative, and who in their right mind would want to move there to mitigate much less offset the outflow of "draft dodgers," the fertility  rate is 1.2,  and so, it appears that Putin's Hail Mary pass was intercepted, and the ball run back into his own end zone. Too bad that to complete the metaphor, those tackled are dead bodies surrounded by destruction.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

NYT says pro Ukrainian groups did the nordstream sabotage. Tbh Russia was fairly quiet early on which actually made believe it wasn't a Russian false flag.

Actually the article does not say that, and it is all idle speculation, and the cost to repair is 500 million, which is next to nothing. The destruction was not needed, because Germany will not be buying gas from Putin's Russia ever again, pipeline or no pipeline. 

Here is a paragraph which is the "tell" that the article is almost literally drowning in its own speculation:

"Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British nationals were involved."

So it actually was a joint Ukraine-Russian operation. And guess who was directing the joint operation? Torie was.  Please write that down for future reference. Which leaves the question as to just who Torie works for.

[Torie]

Odd article, but there seems to be some disarray at the top about who knows what, and agitprop message control in Russia.

https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-elite-battle-clash-ukraine-war-information-maria-zakharova-2023-3

[Torie]

Stories like the one above make me depressed that the US did not give Ukraine more effective weapons in greater quantities sooner. The preference for not wanting to seem too provocative and perhaps to keep the twin weak sisters, Germany and France, in sync, in exchange for a much higher Ukrainian body count, is  not the choice that I would have made.

[Torie]

I wonder if this rather sudden chat about jets to Ukraine is about trying to give Ukraine control of the air over its attack path south to the Black Sea. I don't see how it could all work without air superiority in the vicinity. One would also not want Russia ships in the Black Sea blasting away on the attack route either from too close a range.

No, I don't know a damn thing about things military. Just asking and musing.

[Torie]

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Writes-Off-20-Billion-In-Debt-To-African-Countries-20230320-0015.html

"Russia Writes Off 20 Billion In Debt To African Countries"

Sounds like Russia does not have liquidity problems if it can afford to write off $20 billion in debt to gain clout and influence in Africa.

Writing off bad debt has no impact on liquidity. But you are right. The West needs to do more to BK Russia.

[Torie]

Down them with drones.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/?sh=75dcd2886ffc

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

Here is the source. My instinct is that it is disinformation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

If Putin can put tactical nukes in Belarus, why can't the US put tactical nukes in Ukraine? What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Putin's move seems ill advised from even his own sociopathic mindset. It kind of reeks of desperation actually.

Hey Biden, exploit this to expedite Ukraine achieving air superiority if you get the drift.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

General Millay's comment that the Russians are getting hammered in al slaughter fest on several fronts, not just Bakhmut, apparently inspired the press to publish a spat of stories  in a variation of the same theme as if in a well crafted symphonic score:


Ukrainians Directing Soldiers From a Hidden Hub See Bakhmut Going Their Way says the headline in the NYT, which this awesome photo of a command post near the front with a battery of computer screens of the Bakhmut slaughter scene is one variation:

Ukrainian commanders say they have exhausted Russia’s relentless assaults on the eastern city, though soldiers say the cost in lives has been steep.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/todayspaper/ukraine-bakhmut-russia.html

Perhaps the supply of cannon fodder is running low (see below), is another recapitulation as the front as the front quiets down: 

"Ukrainian and Western officials point to signs that Russia's campaign is flagging. The average number of daily Russian attacks on the front line reported by Ukraine's general staff has declined almost by half over the past four weeks."

 https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-sees-russian-progress-eastern-frontline-city-bakhmut-2023-03-29/

Wagner chief admits Bakhmut battle has 'battered' his army

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/03/30/russia-wagner-at-odds-with-putin-chance-pkg-ebof-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn

The culmination  is this from the NYT:

“As some other commanders have noted, there are weaknesses and gaps in the Russian defenses. “The same way they can encircle us, they can also be encircled by us if we pierce their defense at any place,” Mr. Filimonov said.

‘The Russians realize the danger themselves, he said, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company, which is doing much of the fighting at Bakhmut, publicly warned of the danger in a video post as he called for more military support for his own forces.

“If Wagner PMC rolls back, then the following situation will happen in history,” he said in early March. “It is clear that the front will crumble. The front will crumble to the Russian borders, or maybe further.”

‘Colonel Mezhevikin said there were still strong Russian divisions guarding the critical points of defense but that regular Russian army units lacked morale and were easier to break. “It’s easier to fight them. They are running away,” he said.”

The only thing keeping the house of cards standing at all is the way Wagner motivates its troops in a way that apparently the regular army of Russia cannot:

“But Wagner units, which include convicts, were threatened with physical punishment if they retreated, which made them tougher opponents, he said. “They are scared to give up and to leave positions,” he explained. “They prefer to die here.”

Who knew that the last bit of glue for the card house was cleaning out the prisons for cannon fodder? Wars can be full of surprises.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

you're only remembering the failures and you're more likely to hear about the failures in the first place.  US intel did correctly predict when Russia was going to invade, to the day (if not hour).  Russian apologists where saying it wasn't going to happen until the moment it happened, since then they've been suggesting Ukraine should capitulate.  Clearly US def intel knows more than a Russian stooge does with regards to the current situation in Ukraine.

or, on preview, what NYDem just said.

Actually in the final days Zelensky accepted that the invasion was happening, and took substantial preemptive action, in accordance with UK and US advice, which was key to saving both Kiev and his life from the planned Russian quick kill lightening strike and seizure of the airport by Russian paratroopers (who instead were all killed by Ukrainian soldiers laying in wait).  Zelensky did not publicize the invasion, to avoid panic in the population. 60 minutes had a lengthy documentary on the topic which was quite fascinating. Zelensky, as with most matters in this war, handled matters very well - calmly and with guts. Zelensky's  video of him and his cabinet all staying in Kiev to the nation was also pre-planned.

My impression is that Zelensky in the conduct of this war very closely coordinates with the US and the UK, and their advice, and with their intelligence, including in particular the decision to hang on in Bahkmut. Zelensky did not go rogue there. The events of the past few days suggest that perhaps that was the right decision. By design, it is not publicized just how deeply enmeshed the three nations are on a day to day, indeed hourly by hourly basis, in the conduct of this war, but they are. I also think that much of the Ukraine targeting is provided from US and UK surveillance assets.

[Torie]

Let's see what happens to Ukraine's demographic future after Putin is defeated and defenestrated. Be patient. But yeah, it is a reminder of the need to focus on effecting Putin's future with the maximum dispatch practicable.

[Torie]

After one has had their fill of the above images of Putin's Potemkin village

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632504832769523713

lining the truck arterials supplying the occupied territories on the perhaps not that much longer to be land bridge, here is a more complete essay of Putin's doings in the Mariupol.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/feb/23/mariupol-the-ruin-of-a-city

[Torie]

The odds of Russia attacking a NATO country and Ukraine joining NATO while Russia is attacking it, are both asymptotically close to zero.

Atlas has developed posing absurd hypotheticals, and then posters dissing each other over often the equally absurd iterations,  into one of its most popular forms of performance art.

[Torie]

Is it just me or is Ukraine putting any forces on the Kinburn Split f**king insane? It's totally indefensible. If this is just Ukraine using artillery to force Russia out, fine, but trying to occupy it is just ridiculous right now. You'd be trapped on a peninsula.

1.Russia would have to pull troops from elsewhere to block it or take it back
2.it has a natural choke point that Russians trying to retake it will have to go through, if the Ukrainians play their cards right, they can kill a lot of Russians at that choke point.
3.They don't have to properly take the peninsula, just make life hell for the Russians there, occasionally show up and blow sh**t up, then GTFO.  Make the Russian Colonels in the area more crazy than they already are.

If Ukraine launches its attempt to sever the land bridge, the peninsula for Russia will rapidly become beside the point. It also is obviously not a good spot for Ukraine to launch an offensive even if it becomes counter productive for Russia to continue to occupy it.

[Torie]

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-popularity-us-record-high-poll-1793000

"Putin's Popularity Reaches Record High in the U.S.—Poll"

You did not bother to observe that per this poll, Putin's record popularity is now at 21% from 15%, based on a poll where we don't know the sample size or the margin of error or reliability.

Gallup in a poll conducted last month found that Russia's popularity went from 15% down to 9%. Fancy that.

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-popularity-us-record-high-poll-1793000

You are an intelligent and informed poster, and I cannot really understand why you embarrass yourself in this way, as you seem to go out of your way to appear to be something of an agitprop shill, typically for incredibly unpopular causes to boot.

Anyway, for your reading pleasure here is a Paul Krugman article that Russia's energy offensive has been a total fail (remember all those posts you made about the coming national gas disaster for Europe?), just like the balance of its pugilistic efforts involving Ukraine, starting with its disastrous Kiev campaign from which it never really recovered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/opinion/putins-energy-natural-gas.html

On this one, you may be shilling for the losing side. You might consider cutting him loose and your losses, and sell him out, or even better, short him.