2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Torie]

AZ is so much less interesting than the last cycle. It is going to be a 5-5 map - period. The Pub collapse in the city of Phoenix has been brutal. So you don't need a mathismander or any other kind of mander to "fairly" split the partisan pie. You can  draw a map that once comports with good redistricting principles, while splitting the partisan pie fairly.

So this state is a great big bore. I doubt I will be back.

PS: I am sure that all you virgin nerds know why there are these seemingly unnecessarily county splits.

[Torie]

@torie the commision is being heavily R stacked , I see little reason the GOP won't try to keep the very "fair" AZ 9th as close to its current form as possible.


Where is your 5th D seat?

Four are nested in Maricopa (the only exception being the Mesa based CD), the other is Pima (Tuscon) based.

[Torie]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

There is a reason.

[Torie]

Torie could you give the link for your map?

Hitting the publish button on the DRA and then copying the URL link as instructed by its directions does not seem to work, but here it is. If someone can explain what the glitch is, that would be helpful.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9fa4f10f-7eb4-4238-b301-2847c74dcb26

Anyway, this image is kind of cool. The partisan colors are from the 2018 senate race.

[Torie]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Yes it is, and I am the lawyer, and you are not.

Anyway, I don't want to debate the point now too much. But there is nothing that requires a VRA CD that has to stretch over a 100 miles of empty desert, and the CD probably has a majority of Hispanic voters, or at least Hispanic CVAP (circa 5 years ago, 39.3% of the CVAP was Hispanic (probably higher now), and AZ has closed primaries), voting in a Dem primary, in any event. Moreover, Hispanics are becoming less of a distinctive voting block, and there is less and less white hostility to voting for them, as time goes by. I suspect Hispanics and the VRA are on its last legs at this point, but we shall see about that as time goes by.

Case dismissed. Next!

[Torie]

^Especially in Pima county, there isn't significant racial block voting as far as I can tell.

The incumbent's biggest fans in fact are white liberals associated with the University of Tuscon. He does not do very well with Hispanics associated with the military base, and those patrolling the border, who love the wall. So many stereotypes, so little time.

[Torie]

How did the map traduce the tribes? I was taught about respecting the tribes in no uncertain terms by a Welshman of all people that still posts here once in a while.

In the old days job one was keeping the Hopis and Navajos apart because the Hopis considered the Navajos land grabbers. But they kissed and made up for purposes of redistricting after the 2010 census.

[Torie]

Well we shall just agree to disagree on this matter. Life is still beautiful, and I won't consider you HP's for failing to be persuaded by me.

[Torie]

I still have this phobia against a CD that goes from a chop in Pima County to a chop in the Yuma area across 100 miles of empty desert, when a performing Hispanic CD can nest entirely in Pima County, or a slice of Pima plus Santa Cruz County.

[Torie]

In redoing the Mathismander, I was reminded how much I hate it. It ignores county lines, muni lines, compactness, everything. So, I restored order to that mess (clicking on that “city” utility speeds things up to near warp speed), and of course continue to refuse to do that ridiculous joining of Yuma and Tucson across empty desert that is not required by the VRA or anything else.  

My map is best I’m sure, and I doubt anyone can cause me to change my mind about that. It’s a freaking shame it probably will not be enacted into law. It's lonely at the top.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d342056e-01a0-4dba-9df5-5edff4e71a6a

[Torie]

The 88 residents in Maricopa County dividing  the reservation put back in. Thanks. We disagree about the VRA. I won't debate that one again.

[Torie]

This one make everyone happy? Yes, I thought not.  

[Torie]

I cleaned up the “gerrymandered” lines between AZ-06 and AZ-07 to parse just how much the unnecessarily erose lines that were adopted moved the needle to the Dems. The answer is 85 basis points. AZ-06 as “cleaned up” was carried by Trump over Biden by 1.5%. AZ-07 is still majority Hispanic by the way. The map changes reduce the Hispanic VAP from 55.5% to 53.9%. The lines were not made more erose for VRA reasons, but rather for partisan reasons.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/49bc3244-06c7-42ad-b776-343b96d3af4c

[Torie]

I cleaned up the “gerrymandered” lines between AZ-06 and AZ-07 to parse just how much the unnecessarily erose lines that were adopted moved the needle to the Dems.

The erosity moved the map toward a compromise that both parties could accept, and a map which is already expected to be 6-3 R in 2022. Do you think it was unreasonable or unnecessary to achieve some proportionality with the changes?

Proportionality is one prong of the list of factors that should be taken into account. In my view, one weighs the proportionality gained against the amount of erosity (or chops) added. It's a balancing test. Myself, I don't think the prong into Cochise is worth it, but some added erosity in the Tuscon bi-chop probably would be, so I might come out somewhere in between. One should also look at trends. Tuscon is trending away from the Pubs at warp speed. The Pubs may well pick up the seat in 2022, but I suspect it will be a short term lease unless the Pub gains with Hispanics, particularly urban Hispanics in the Southwest, becomes a real "thing" rather than a blip for a macho strong man.

In any event, the needle moved less than I would have guessed. The tie breaker vote was the epitome of moderation in all things.

tl:dr: No.  

[Torie]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.