And then there were 9, who is next to drop out?

[Torie]

Nobody until NH primary day, then Fiorina, Christie, Bush and Kasich after they flop in NH (not necessarily in that order).

Is the below a Kasich "flop?"

29 Trump
18 Rubio
16 Kasich
15 Cruz
9 Bush
7 Christie
4  Carson
2 Fiorina
0 Gilmore

[Torie]

Nobody until NH primary day, then Fiorina, Christie, Bush and Kasich after they flop in NH (not necessarily in that order).

Is the below a Kasich "flop?"

29 Trump
18 Rubio
16 Kasich
15 Cruz
9 Bush
7 Christie
4  Carson
2 Fiorina
0 Gilmore

I expect Kasich, Bush and Christie to drop like a rock in the polls over this week as Rubio gains momentum from his strong showing in Iowa.  The polls today don't reflect that yet.

I am just asking what you define as a flop. I guess the above does not qualify as a Kasich flop. I am not so sure he is going to drop that much. He's more distinctive than Christie and Jeb, and has the endorsements of all of those newspapers in NH. He has the cred in other words.

If I lived in NH, I think right now that I would vote for Kasich, unless I became convinced that Rubio really had the right stuff. To judge that, I would need to see him mix it up more with voters, with back and forth, and tough questions, rather than the canned speech with Jesus by his side routine. In other words, I would not be quite prepared to put all my eggs in the Rubio basket at this point. In the meantime, Kasich can go on and do his number in the Midwest and Northeast, while Rubio does his in west and south, more or less. In the end, their delegates will cooperate with each other obviously. They just need to be careful not to step on each other's toes, and lose delegates to Trump or Cruz, is all.

[Torie]

Nobody until NH primary day, then Fiorina, Christie, Bush and Kasich after they flop in NH (not necessarily in that order).

Is the below a Kasich "flop?"

29 Trump
18 Rubio
16 Kasich
15 Cruz
9 Bush
7 Christie
4  Carson
2 Fiorina
0 Gilmore

I expect Kasich, Bush and Christie to drop like a rock in the polls over this week as Rubio gains momentum from his strong showing in Iowa.  The polls today don't reflect that yet.

I am just asking what you define as a flop. I guess the above does not qualify as a Kasich flop. I am not so sure he is going to drop that much. He's more distinctive than Christie and Jeb, and has the endorsements of all of those newspapers in NH. He has the cred in other words.

If I lived in NH, I think right now that I would vote for Kasich, unless I became convinced that Rubio really had the right stuff. To judge that, I would need to see him mix it up more with voters, with back and forth, and tough questions, rather than the canned speech with Jesus by his side routine. In other words, I would not be quite prepared to put all my eggs in the Rubio basket at this point. In the meantime, Kasich can go on and do his number in the Midwest and Northeast, while Rubio does his in west and south, more or less. In the end, their delegates will cooperate with each other obviously. They just need to be careful not to step on each other's toes, and lose delegates to Trump or Cruz, is all.

Kasich coming in a close third is probably not a flop, but I don't expect that.  He likely will fade.  Rubio has all the momentum in the "establishment" lane, and I expect NH establishment voters to coalesce behind him this week.  Newspaper endorsements only get you so far, especially in a Republican primary where many voters are actually turned off by endorsements by the likes of the New York Times and Boston Globe and the endorsements aren't recent.  

Well, you're a Democrat now, so your vote hardly matters.

OK, I guess we will find out soon who is right. Just as a reminder, independents can vote in the Pub primary, and in NH, I would register as an independent. That would be a no brainer, since I could then bounce around from primary to primary at will.

Kasich should do well with the independent vote, particularly with Rubio sounding more hard line conservative and Godly now, as he pandered to Iowa's heavily religious and conservative Iowa caucus voters (with Trump boxing him in even more, as Trump sucked up so many of the relatively few more moderate, albeit on the downscale end SES wise, voters). I don't blame Rubio for that much (it's a good move for SC in particular), but such things do have consequences.