How can Rubio beat Clinton? (user search)
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  How can Rubio beat Clinton? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How can Rubio beat Clinton?  (Read 4698 times)
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,108
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: February 02, 2016, 10:49:18 AM »

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,108
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2016, 11:25:34 AM »

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.

Yes Torie, but he also needs Ohio and Virginia in order to win.

Nobody has answered the topline question. Anyone who thinks that Rubio can beat Hillary should show a way how, without including Wisconsin.


Your wish is my command. Below is the most likely path to a Rubio with nothing to spare victory (well Rubio could lose WV, and get 269 electoral votes, and have the House elect him, but I digress). I hope that helps you. Smiley

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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,108
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2016, 11:33:08 AM »

No, he won't win NY. He will be lucky to match McCain's totals (which were a tad better than Romney's). But maybe he will cut into the gay vote in Columbia County. Tongue
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,108
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2016, 11:56:01 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2016, 11:58:27 AM by Torie »


Nice. But could you please elaborate on Rubio's chances of winning Virginia, i.e. who in Virginia is going to vote for him?

Rubio can win VA by holding the erosion down in NOVA, the black vote drops a tad, and the white working class vote in the west (VA-09 and VA-06) goes up by a bit (that cohort's turnout is about 5% below black turnout in VA). So the trick is for Rubio to have a tad more populist image than Mittens, without it causing any offsetting erosion. So it is certainly possible.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,108
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2016, 02:52:42 PM »


Rubio lies far more than HRC does.  Other than what Rubio said about Ted Cruz, I can't think of a single thing that Rubio has told the truth about.

Calm down.
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