How can Rubio beat Clinton?

[Ljube]

Two winners tonight. Clinton and Rubio.

They are the most likely nominees now.

Let's look at this map:

This is the most likely map of real swing states in a Clinton vs. Rubio GE.
I find it very difficult to see how Rubio can beat Clinton. He needs to run the table here.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

He's favored in Iowa and Ohio to begin with, I would say, and the underdog in Nevada. So it comes down to Virginia, and that will depend heavily on the national climate.

And this is assuming he doesn't run a good campaign and pull over a few more states.

[136or142]

Just keep doing what he always does: lie.

[tallguy23]

Gain votes from Latinos and young people. Clinton isn't loved among young people but Rubio is much too socially conservative for them.

It'll be interesting.

[Xing]

Doing all he's been doing. Spew anti-Obama rhetoric without offering anything of substance, and hope that Obama's popularity takes a hit this year, so that people just eat it all up.

[Sir Mohamed]

At first, pick John Kasich as VP. These two are the best running mates the GOP can offer this year (although I prefer Kasich as prez and Rubio as VP). Second, present himself as a fresh alternative to Hillary, who represents the past and the establishment.

This here might be a path for Rubio to capture the presidency. I think WI is a little more likely to flip to the GOP than PA. Both are Close, within 1%, in that scenario:

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 278 EV. (49.9%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 260 EV. (48.9%)


With toss-ups:

227-191-120

[BlueSwan]

Two winners tonight. Clinton and Rubio.

They are the most likely nominees now.

Let's look at this map:

This is the most likely map of real swing states in a Clinton vs. Rubio GE.
I find it very difficult to see how Rubio can beat Clinton. He needs to run the table here.

Wait a minute. You just gave Colorado to Rubio? Not buying it. Colorado is a swing state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Two winners tonight. Clinton and Rubio.

They are the most likely nominees now.

Let's look at this map:

This is the most likely map of real swing states in a Clinton vs. Rubio GE.
I find it very difficult to see how Rubio can beat Clinton. He needs to run the table here.

Wait a minute. You just gave Colorado to Rubio? Not buying it. Colorado is a swing state.

FL is also a toss-up. Rubio isn’t that popular with latinos, and Castro as Dem VP gives Hillary a shot in the sunshine state.

[SillyAmerican]

The real question: how can Rubio NOT beat Clinton?

(It'll be interesting to see how she spins the Iowa results, and how she's gonna spin the results in NH...).

[PresidentTRUMP]

It would be close, but after 8 years of democrats in the white house I think Rubio would take it in a close election.

If it is Cruz or Trump than Hillary would probably win.

[SillyAmerican]

Just keep doing what he always does: lie.

Um, "lie"? That's Clinton...

[Torie]

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.

[Ljube]

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.

Yes Torie, but he also needs Ohio and Virginia in order to win.

Nobody has answered the topline question. Anyone who thinks that Rubio can beat Hillary should show a way how, without including Wisconsin.

[Torie]

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.

Yes Torie, but he also needs Ohio and Virginia in order to win.

Nobody has answered the topline question. Anyone who thinks that Rubio can beat Hillary should show a way how, without including Wisconsin.

Your wish is my command. Below is the most likely path to a Rubio with nothing to spare victory (well Rubio could lose WV, and get 269 electoral votes, and have the House elect him, but I digress). I hope that helps you.

[Shadows]

I think Rubio will get a very easy & commanding victory. Clinton got like 14% of the 17-29 voters. That is the most pathetic figure in a 2 way contest ever. She does very poorly with independents, who will essentially decide the election as the largest bloc.

Rubio will get more hispanic & women votes than other gop candidates even if he looses to Clinton in this demographic.

This thing is over IMO - We are having Rubio as the next President if Clinton wins

[Ljube]

Rubio will underperform I think in Wisconsin. I don't think this dovish state will like his bellicosity. He is more likely to win PA than Wisconsin, and certainly Nevada than Wisconsin.

Yes Torie, but he also needs Ohio and Virginia in order to win.

Nobody has answered the topline question. Anyone who thinks that Rubio can beat Hillary should show a way how, without including Wisconsin.

Your wish is my command. Below is the most likely path to a Rubio with nothing to spare victory (well Rubio could lose WV, and get 269 electoral votes, and have the House elect him, but I digress). I hope that helps you.

Thanks Torie!

You are right. It's the only way.

I mean, in spite of your vote, Rubio's not winning New York

[Torie]

No, he won't win NY. He will be lucky to match McCain's totals (which were a tad better than Romney's). But maybe he will cut into the gay vote in Columbia County.

[Donnie]

Both are awful establishment candidates. But, if it will come to that matchup in the end
RUBIO will win this. Take my word.

[°Leprechaun]

[Ljube]

Nice. But could you please elaborate on Rubio's chances of winning Virginia, i.e. who in Virginia is going to vote for him?

[Gog]

The most plausible way is a major terrorist attack occurs one week before Election Day. The less plausible way is if Clinton is indicted somehow.

[Torie]

Nice. But could you please elaborate on Rubio's chances of winning Virginia, i.e. who in Virginia is going to vote for him?

Rubio can win VA by holding the erosion down in NOVA, the black vote drops a tad, and the white working class vote in the west (VA-09 and VA-06) goes up by a bit (that cohort's turnout is about 5% below black turnout in VA). So the trick is for Rubio to have a tad more populist image than Mittens, without it causing any offsetting erosion. So it is certainly possible.

[°Leprechaun]

Nice. But could you please elaborate on Rubio's chances of winning Virginia, i.e. who in Virginia is going to vote for him?

If the election is close, which it could be, VA and OH could be tossups. IA could also be a tossup.Clinton would win all the states in my map with the possible exception of IA. If she won either VA or OH she would win the election.
I would flip VA and OH and CO on this map, but since the question
is how Rubio could win I gave them to him. He would basically
need all four swing states to win, VA,CO, OH, and FL.

[°Leprechaun]

If Clinton were to win VA, Rubio would have to win either NH or NV which could be difficult. OH and FL are also probable must wins for Rubio.

[Illiniwek]

Rubio is a putz that offers no substance. All he can do is criticize Obama which doesn't work if the economy keeps ticking up. He would get demolished in the debates. It would be Hillary's race to lose, and I bet she won't blow it. I think it would be a 2012 repeat.