TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary)

[Torie]

What is the posited national percentage vote for Trump in this little arithmetic excursion? CA probably has a lower percentage of working class whites of almost any state in the union, and probably one of the higher percentages of more bourgeoisie whites, of anywhere in the US, but I digress. And of those bourgeoisie whites, aside from a very few places, a higher percentage of those bourgeoisie whites, are white gentry liberals, and fewer are red meat conservatives, who prefer to consume it almost raw. And how will all those bourgeoisie whites get their lawns cut, and their kids looked after, and their pools cleaned, if their Hispanic hired help are all deported? Their restaurant bills will go up too.

And then there are the farmers in the Central Valley, whose hired help is ... well you get the drift.

Let me help our thread host here. Perhaps he might like to write this down. The white bourgeoise in CA in general like Hispanics. They don't want them to leave. Rather what they would prefer is that Trump leave, leave the United States, permanently. Thank you.

[Torie]

StatesPoll, I like how you conveniently upped the white vote turnout by 2% and left the Hispanic vote share the same, as if Trump's rhetoric will only increase turnout among whites, despite a large part of his support coming from his call to deport 11 million Hispanics and end birthright citizenship.

Also interesting is how you base your Asian vote share on 2014 midterms, despite the fact that all demographics tend to vote differently in midterms. The electorate skews older who have different patterns entirely when it comes to local candidates. Local politicians do not have to run on the same platform as a presidential candidate and are less polarizing this way. So no, Trump's Asian vote share will not be 50%. Sorry. Once again, you have no idea how to understand political trends.

And he'll win 60% of whites in Cali? You realize that in 2012, in California, only 53%~ of white voters went for Romney, right? You realize that his white vote share was not the same in every state, right? You realize that his massive gains among white voters in the South pumped up his national average of the white electorate, right? And so now Trump is going to gain 7% among whites in California, a very liberal state? What, you assume he won't alienate any whites? Please.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just stop.

Actually Romney's biggest gains tended to be among white bourgeoisie types in upscale suburbs in the North. You know folks like me, who voted for Obama in 2008 and Mittens in 2012 - precisely the type of voters who will never, ever, vote for Trump. And in those years I lived in Orange County, CA. My burb trended about 5 points to Mittens, or something like that, vis a vis McCain, meaning the swing was about 7 points.

[Torie]

Actually Romney's biggest gains tended to be among white bourgeoisie types in upscale suburbs in the North. You know folks like me, who voted for Obama in 2008 and Mittens in 2012 - precisely the type of voters who will never, ever, vote for Trump. And in those years I lived in Orange County, CA. My burb trended about 5 points to Mittens, or something like that, vis a vis McCain, meaning the swing was about 7 points.

I can't speak for Romney's gains on a regional basis for specific groups of whites, but in California there is no way Trump is going to score out of the park among whites like Mr StatesPoll said.

This guy has the most biased outlook I've seen. He just randomly pumps up Trump's numbers to ridiculous levels because he thinks him getting crowds translates to unrealistic gains everywhere while not alienating any white people at all. Trump is never going to get close to 60% among whites in a general election. Not with the white no-college share of the electorate dropping heavily every 4 years.

Yes, a Trump on the ballot will cause a trend in CA versus the nation, and that trend will not be favorable to Trump. Trump's base of support is anemic in CA. Those kind of folks have left the state in droves in the last 25 years.

[Torie]

Why are we all posting in this ridiculous thread ?
I feel foolish.
These Trump yes-men will say anything to get attention ("the apples don't fall far from the Tree").

Because it was just such a fascinating case of statistical GIGO. This thread should be linked in the dictionary next to that term.