This is likely a one-term proposition regardless. There is almost no chance the GOP will nominate him in 2018 - they will have a pretty strong bench of candidates eyeing this seat. His best bet going forward would be to caucus with the Democrats, hope that Brownback is re-elected and a Republican wins the Presidency in 2016. Then hope that a national wave + local disappointment in Brownback could lead him to another narrow victory.
I don't know. Kansas not that long ago used to be kind to moderate Pubs, and just how is Orman one who would not fit into that club? Yes, sure, Kansas has Brownback now, but still, it has its more moderate and understated wing, when it comes to partisan antics at least.