What does a 5% uniform swing from Obama to Romney look like?

[Torie]

You boys seem to be torturing yourselves a bit. Obama got 53.7% of the two party vote last time. For Romney to win, the uniform swing needs to be about 4.55%, with Romney getting 50.85% of the two party point, at which time he carries Colorado and goes over 269 electoral votes. That is the bad news for Mittens because Colorado is trending Dem at the moment, not Pub, and the Hispanics will punish Mittens.

The good news for Mittens is that the next state after Colorado is New Hampshire, which falls to Mittens when the two party swing is 4.86%, with Mittens getting 51.56% of the two party vote.

Can NH trend more than 1.56% Mittens' way, giving him 270 electoral votes even if he loses Colorado?  Yes, I think that is in the cards. NH is just made for Mittens ($$$ is more important up there than the currency used in the celestial kingdom, be it the traditional one, or the new age/secular humanist one), and he has one of his homes there, and Hispanics don't live there. The Pubs are very fortunate in that way - very fortunate. NH in short is the place that causes Mittens not to be hold "hostage" to Hispanics, to be blunt about it (assuming he can carry AZ, which I think still has a 1%-2% Pub bias, even after adjusting for the McCain home-state factor and Hispanic Dem trends).

[Torie]

The good news for Mittens is that the next state after Colorado is New Hampshire, which falls to Mittens when the two party swing is 4.86%, with Mittens getting 51.56% of the two party vote.

Can NH trend more than 1.56% Mittens' way, giving him 270 electoral votes even if he loses Colorado?  Yes, I think that is in the cards. NH is just made for Mittens ($$$ is more important up there than the currency used in the celestial kingdom, be it the traditional one, or the new age/secular humanist one), and he has one of his homes there, and Hispanics don't live there. The Pubs are very fortunate in that way - very fortunate. NH in short is the place that causes Mittens not to be hold "hostage" to Hispanics, to be blunt about it (assuming he can carry AZ, which I think still has a 1%-2% Pub bias, even after adjusting for the McCain home-state factor and Hispanic Dem trends).

Well done, good analysis.  Its a one shot deal, assuming (as I think is correct) the Hispanic lock-out you mention.

Of course if we start to get into this 'which state can trend than the uniform swing', this brings up other problems - Virginia is also trending Democrat, of course much more moderately so than Colorado - and Romney is a terrible fit for Ohio.  So.. its definitely trying to thread the needle for your favorite aristocrat.

Thank you.

Just to complete the story, Virginia is Mittens' toughest state before facing Colorado and NH. But in a 50-50 two party vote election, Virginia would have to trend .518% to the Dems (52 basis points), for Obama to win it. So in an even swing, it goes to Mittens. For Mittens to win NH, and lose VA, the trend difference between them would need to be a bit over 2%.