Due to the threshold, if Mittens fails to break 25% of the vote here, he is really in trouble. Consider.
25.01% of the vote = 5 delegates for Mittens, 15 delegates non-Mittens. Or best case scenario, non-Mittens nets 10 delegates over Mittens.
24.99% of the vote = 20 delegates for non-Mittens. Non-Mittens nets 20 delegates over Mittens.
Difference is a net of 10 delegates.
The only thing that matters is the number of delegates Mittens gets. 5 delegates are at stake here. I consider Newt and Rick as one candidate at this point, and I don't expect Newt to be campaigning in any state where his increasing his vote share, might increase the number of Mittens delegates. In other words, I expect to see him only in proportional states.
