Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[Torie]

It is unclear if this exit poll leak is adjusted for absentee voters.  If it isn't, Mittens must be happy.

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Oh, and then there is this below, suggesting that it was so adjusted, but how can you ask absentee voters how they voted in an "exit poll?"  Perhaps it was a combo of an exit poll and a telephone poll of some sort. Or perhaps it is just f'ed up.

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[Torie]

What the hell does "exclusive exit polling of likely voters" even mean?  Are they concerned they accidentally polled some people who just happened to wander in and out of the polling place but forgot to vote?

Yes, that is another unfortunate use of wording isn't it, which leaves us in the dark as to exactly what the F this outfit actually did.

[Torie]

From the description it sounds like it's just a regular telephone poll.

I suspect you are right. They just ripped the word "exit" off, the jerks.

[Torie]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which means that whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which further means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

[Torie]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which is whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

They've actually downgraded Democrats to 7% of the sample last I checked.

2.2% shave then. Have you ever noticed how the exit poll results change as the raw vote comes in, so that at the end, the exit poll numbers always match the actual result?  I see this all the time. The exit poll numbers after they come in are massaged to "fit."  That is OK, since one is interested in seeing accurate sub-group numbers, but it should be fully disclosed, and never seems to be so disclosed.

[Torie]

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Santorum's also winning among Very conservative and conservative.

So if Mittens wants to complain about Reagan democrats crossing over, he needs to take a hard look at the Rockefellers. He's consistantly won among independents and moderates.

I don't think the Dems who voted in the GOP primary in MI are mostly "Reagan Democrats."

[Torie]

Rick was smart to start his speech before MI was called for Mittens, so that he did not need to acknowledge the loss, but alas he is still talking, and talking, after MI was called, so perhaps he should have started 10 minutes earlier.

[Torie]

The one place Santorum really did well were the two more rural Dutch counties, Ottawa and Allegan. He won Allegan by close to 2-1.  It is interesting the Dutch are such outliers, after having been in the US for so many generations, yet not having really regressed to the mean much at all. Their very conservative Dutch Reformed church most be a very important part of their lives.

Rick did not do very well with all those blue or semi-blue  collar Catholics in Macomb, or for that matter Saginaw and Midland. Catholics are pretty consistently so far voting for the LDS Mittens, rather than the true blue Catholic Santorum.

[Torie]

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You sure can kick out the Indies. Romney pissing and moaning about Democrats is rich. He wins counties the more liberal they are - the more likely they vote for Romney.

I didn't say you couldn't kick out the Indies. I said you can't kick out moderates registered as Republicans.

Very funny Yankee. We all know that moderate Republicans are a myth outside of the Northeast.

I don't live in the NE.    And I bet in my CD, about 15% of the registered Pubs voted for Obama circa 2008 - including me. Cheers.

[Torie]

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Saginaw he is losing 43-40.

Macomb 43-35.

Ottawa, which Santorum won - 50-34 and Alleghan he got 60.

He did about as well in Saginaw (better even, than he did statewide), and just a couple percent shy in Macomb.

I'm not sure where you draw the conclusion that Catholics in those areas voted against Santorum.

It seems to me that he draws especially well from the Dutch, and about average among Catholics.

It will be interesting to see what the exit poll says, if it has that breakdown for Catholics, who tend to be more concentrated in urban zones where Mittens does better.

[Torie]

Obama?  Raising taxes?  Does Mitt even pick up a newspaper?

Mitt certainly knows it's bull, but he doesn't care. That's what his audience wants to hear.

Obama has wanted to raise taxes on the "rich," and on investment income even for the non-rich, and such. Of course, to avoid BK to implement Obama's vision, as opposed to a more modest GOP one, taxes will need to be raised more than otherwise, and it will be a tax increase on the middle class in any event - it is just a matter of degree depending on the vision. Well granted, nobody knows what Obama's vision is really on dealing with the entitlement bear. It is as if for him, such a bear is about as real as Big Foot. Ignore the specter of the bear at your own risk, because it may just be that it is not only real, but an irritable Grizzly.

[Torie]

I wonder if Mittens has a new speech writer. His victory speech was more lyrical than normal, with better "chord" changes. It was written by a rather talented pro. If a newbie, Mittens should keep him close.