Nevada GOP caucus **results thread**

[Torie]

Mittens got about 70% of the vote in some Henderson precinct, that was reported live on CNN.

[Torie]

Here is a projection of the final totals, derived by just dividing the current Clark figures by the percentage of precincts (caucus sites) in Clark already counted, which assumes of course that what has not reported is identical to what has been counted - in both size and candidate preference. The Dems will note that turnout is down from the 2008 GOP primary.

[Torie]

BREAKING: HOT OFF THE PRESSES: PAUL DOMINATES MAGICAL JEW CAUCUS

Magical Jew Caucus (1 of 1 precincts reporting)
Ron Paul 183
Romney 61
Gingrich 57
Santorum 16

A marvelous and triumphant victory for the rLOVEution.

I only saw one lady speaking for Paul who "looked" and/or "sounded" Jewish (she liked his foreign policy and Federal Reserve policy - shut them both down as it were).  I suspect a substantial majority of the participants were either 7th Day Adventists, or just decided they wanted to play at night, and lied on the form where they must attest that their religion made them do it (probably mostly Paulites is my guess). I also saw only about 3 yamakas in the room as the camera panned.

[Torie]

I bet most Paulites just voted at the Jewish caucus so they could sleep in.

Coverage of the Adelson caucus made it sound like circus. I think that the Paul campaign was trolling by sending his craziest supporters.

Apparently the Paul campaign robocalled virtually all their supporters about it, saying they could go to the MJC if they missed their own; I imagine only the craziest actually went through with it, though (and in particular probably only the anti-Semetic ZOMG ZIONIST CONSPIRACY types actively preferred to crash it).

And the Paulites as I surmised lied on the form they signed attesting that for religious reasons (not because they could not get out of bed that early), they could not attend a caucus meeting held during the day. Charming.

[Torie]

I bet most Paulites just voted at the Jewish caucus so they could sleep in.

Coverage of the Adelson caucus made it sound like circus. I think that the Paul campaign was trolling by sending his craziest supporters.

Apparently the Paul campaign robocalled virtually all their supporters about it, saying they could go to the MJC if they missed their own; I imagine only the craziest actually went through with it, though (and in particular probably only the anti-Semetic ZOMG ZIONIST CONSPIRACY types actively preferred to crash it).

And the Paulites as I surmised lied on the form they signed attesting that for religious reasons (not because they could not get out of bed that early), they could not attend a caucus meeting held during the day. Charming.

Not as charming as a late-night caucus held at the request of your friendly local billionaire.

And, seriously, if you're holding a late-night caucus, why not make it open to all, especially those who had to miss the morning caucus for work? (EDIT: I realize that this pretty clearly wasn't the case, but all things considered, I'm glad that insane, paranoid Paulites crashed this sham.)

And just what were the checks to make sure the Paulites did not vote twice - as Dr. Jekyll during the day, and Mr. Hyde during the night?  Just asking.  

[Torie]

I bet most Paulites just voted at the Jewish caucus so they could sleep in.

Coverage of the Adelson caucus made it sound like circus. I think that the Paul campaign was trolling by sending his craziest supporters.

Apparently the Paul campaign robocalled virtually all their supporters about it, saying they could go to the MJC if they missed their own; I imagine only the craziest actually went through with it, though (and in particular probably only the anti-Semetic ZOMG ZIONIST CONSPIRACY types actively preferred to crash it).

And the Paulites as I surmised lied on the form they signed attesting that for religious reasons (not because they could not get out of bed that early), they could not attend a caucus meeting held during the day. Charming.

Not as charming as a late-night caucus held at the request of your friendly local billionaire.

And, seriously, if you're holding a late-night caucus, why not make it open to all, especially those who had to miss the morning caucus for work? (EDIT: I realize that this pretty clearly wasn't the case, but all things considered, I'm glad that insane, paranoid Paulites crashed this sham.)

And just what were the checks to make sure the Paulites did not vote twice?  Just asking.  

What were the checks to make sure the other voters didn't vote twice?

Well if the balance of the caucuses held in Clark were held at the same time, that might prove inconvenient, unless Captain Kirk teleported them around. And that assumes that you don't have to show at the day caucuses your address, if you are supposed to go to a particular caucus based on where you live.

[Torie]

Maybe they put indelible marks on their fingers, the way they did it in Iraq in that first election that they had.

[Torie]

"He said the most important part of the document was a portion stating the attendee hadn't already caucused earlier in the day."

So "the check" regarding the voting twice thing, is well, you just sign a form that you didn't vote twice, the same one that says you were precluded from voting earlier due to religious reasons. If you lie about one thing, why not lie about two things?  Yes, some Paulites refused to sign the form.  Or did they sign it, scratching out the religious attestation part?  If they avoided signing anything, then they didn't lie at all!  They just committed a crime, assuming it is criminal to vote twice in a non-government sanctioned caucus process. It probably isn't.  

[Torie]

"He said the most important part of the document was a portion stating the attendee hadn't already caucused earlier in the day."

So "the check" regarding the voting twice thing, is well, you just sign a form that you didn't vote twice, the same one that says you were precluded from voting earlier due to religious reasons. If you lie about one thing, why not lie about two things?  Yes, some Paulites refused to sign the form.  Or did they sign it, scratching out the religious attestation part?  If they avoided signing anything, then they didn't lie at all!  They just committed a crime, assuming it is criminal to vote twice in a non-government sanctioned caucus process. It probably isn't.  

A few things I've learned from looking it up just now-

1. The Magical Jew Caucus didn't even get to appoint precinct delegates, apparently, so in all honesty if someone voted twice in Clark County it wouldn't have any real effect.
2. Some people were indeed turned away for refusing to sign the form; one high school teacher had to get escorted out by the police
3. You had to show a valid Nevada ID to caucus at the MJC, just like for every other caucus in the state, so presumably (making the rather large leap of faith that the NV GOP isn't utterly incompetent) they'd be able to catch any act of double-voting, even if it is after the fact.
4. I don't see how double voting would be easier here than, say, caucusing in one county at 9 AM and then going to the next county over that caucuses at noon, or whatever.

So that night caucus's numbers are not fed into the totals to allocate delegates?  Nevada has a strictly proportional delegate allocation system. Somehow I doubt that. It would make the whole affair at the night caucus a total waste of time - except of course as it turned out, for its entertainment value. And it was entertaining listening to the Paulites vent, and they had a lot to vent about!

You think they are going to cross check all the voter sign ins at the day caucuses (assuming you had to sign in) to see if anyone at the night caucus voted before?  LOL.  

[Torie]

You had to sign your name on the ballot?  In the night caucus, they were just looking a slips of blue paper during the count, which I assume were detached from any names.  Assuming they find a significant number of double voters because they will cross check (keep hope alive), enough to arguably have cost Newt a delegate (it probably won't), I assume we will be treated to another tantrum from Newt, who is having them almost daily now. That would be just grand.

[Torie]

In other news, apparently in some Clark County caucus precincts, the number of ballots cast did not match the number of folks who signed in (no problem if the number of ballots cast is lower (some folks just wanted to watch or not cast a ballot because they hated everybody; a rather impossible problem if the number is higher, but that little factlet one way or the other is not disclosed), and those ballots from the mismatch precincts are being set aside, while the party officials figure out what to do about that.

So, I would not count on any further results being released today. Cheers.

[Torie]

Whomever came up with the moniker MJC should be spanked. It is blatant anti ... ?  Anyway, you haven't seen me use it.  In my gestalt, it's infra dig.

I know, I'm just being a crabby old man. Sorry.

[Torie]

If the magic is in the caucus rather than the Jews, then it should be JMC or JMCCBP (Jewish Magical Caucus Crashed By Paulites).

[Torie]

Yes, Nevada caucus fans, the problem is too many votes in "multiple precincts" aka ballot stuffing or something, rather than too few, but the good news, is that the number of votes is "small." However, the remedy being chatted about is to just toss out the precincts entirely (so the small number of votes involved gets rather larger when "multiple precincts" are tossed out), which if it affects the delegate allocation means a lawsuit (would the courts have jurisdiction over this?), and certainly a rules fight. And the litigant might be Mittens here, since this is Clark County, although I suspect that Adelson night caucus precinct which Paul swept might well be in play here as well.

The stuffed precinct ballots are sitting in what is called a "trouble box."     I think a new term might just have entered the English language.  Folks are going to say it is "trouble box" time, or they are going to need a "trouble box" or whatever.  Now that makes it all worthwhile!

[Torie]

This is why I can't be that enthused about politics anymore, any real change is shot down or conspired against.   Election fraud, misconstrued "evidence" of racism, media blackouts or announcing primary/caucus winners when 0-4% of the votes are in by the media. 

It's probably going to take real revolution to implement any change in this country, or just watch it fall like Rome did.

Oh calm down. In this case, just one delegate is at stake maybe. Humans make a lot of mistakes, and well, there were a lot of determined voters out there who wanted to vote, sometimes maybe more than once, or who were not eligible to vote, and slipped in through an exit door without signing in and having their ID checked, and it was a private party affair, and so forth.

[Torie]

You have a lot more faith in the system (that's hugely biased against my candidate) than I do.

Hmmm whinging about the fairness of the system and bias against it? Let me guess? Paul

Hey, "the system," or perhaps more accurately the random walk emerging out of the penumbra of chaos theory, or whatever it was in NV seemed made to order for all of those perfervid Paulites from what I can tell. 

[Torie]

Hey, "the system," or perhaps more accurately the random walk emerging out of the penumbra of chaos theory, or whatever it was in NV seemed made to order for all of those perfervid Paulites from what I can tell.  

Put down the thesaurus and make a real point.  Yes, freedom-loving people in Nevada is great for Paul supports.  But having this debacle able to bury his votes is not something that is good.  

I personally doubt anyone that's not Paul can beat Obama anyway.

I don't use a thesaurus, and you won't find the string of words I used in it anyway, except one by one (if you can think up a good substitute for, e.g., "penumbra").

Did you read the tale of travail known as the Night Caucus Nightmare by the way?  It makes for pretty good reading.

[Torie]

The question is, are the remaining precincts bigger enough than what came before on average, for Paul to nab a delegate from Newt?  It is getting pretty tight now. Or if Paul hits 5.5 delegates, what happens then?  Or does he need to be closer to six, than Rick is to three, and take a delegate away from Rick?

[Torie]

Oh Mittens took a fall in the last vote dump.  It does not look like the delegate counts will change now. Paul took a hit too, since it was his competitor Newt who poached from Mitt's total.  

[Torie]

So Mitt will finish below 50% and I'll get my extra point?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjpE1I7XbE

Maybe, maybe not. If Mittens does better than what came before in Clark, or the precincts are larger on average, he can get back over it in a flash.

[Torie]

Nothing much happened this time. This latest vote dump almost matched perfectly what came before.

[Torie]

Looks like most of Summerlin is yet to report...

I assume that is Mittens country no, as in higher income than the norm for Clark County, and rather considerably higher? I really don't know Vegas neighborhoods that well I admit.

[Torie]

Well unless Summerlin is still out, and Mittens will romp there, it looks increasingly likely that BRTD will get "his point" and that Mittens will be held below 50% (still far from certain however). It is clear that the delegate totals are pretty much settled at this point I would think.

[Torie]

Well unless Summerlin is still out, and Mittens will romp there, it looks increasingly likely that BRTD will get "his point" and that Mittens will be held below 50% (still far from certain however).

YES!  UNDER 50%!  GOGOGOGO!

If that transpires, I am going to blame Paulite fraud in the Nighttime Nightmare Caucus myself, screw the maths if the numbers don't work to support that thesis.

[Torie]

Well it's Miller time, and the counters are probably savoring one, as shall I.