Rated from most likely to least likely in each section
Indiana = definite flip
North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip
Pennsylvania = unlikely flip
What makes you classify Ohio as a likely flip? And I'd classify PA as possible also since I chose the states most likely to change parties. Hence why other states like MI, WI, etc aren't mentioned at the moment.
OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie). And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem. PA has the Philly suburbs.
