Can Fiorina be stopped?

[Torie]

As I mentioned on another thread, I sent Campbell a $500 contribution. What I did not say is that when I made the contribution on his website,  I sent him a personal note. Tonight I received a reply back from the man himself. Among other things, Tom said that he did not recall that he was smarter than I was.

As I said, and say again, Campbell is a fundamentally decent human being. I like him, and more importantly, I trust him.

[Torie]

Lewis,  I happen to know Tom Campbell, personally. I knew him when he was not a public figure. He is not anything that you suggest. Some folks can actually be capable and nice and candid and honest, even a politician, although I know that pushes the limits of Newtonian psychics. Putting Dubya up in such a context was well, surprising of you.

Anyway, here is the the type of ad Boxer will be running over and over if Fiorina gets the GOP nomination. It won't be pretty.

[Torie]

Stopping Carly now appears more problematical than ever, now that Campbell has pulled his TV ads and gone dark, at least for today. He may be back up on the tube later. I guess my $500 was insufficient.

So, it is becoming also mandatory now (unless you are Jerry Brown), that in order to run for statewide office in California, you have a minimum net worth of about 100 million (as both our Senators and governor now do, along with some of the lesser statewide office holders).  Ain't that great?

[Torie]

A slight ray of sunshine appears as Campbell is apparently going back up on the air on Friday, with an ad (which you can access at the link) touting the poll showing him running about 12 points better against Boxer than Fiorina.

Meanwhile, presumably hundreds of thousands of voters a day are now casting their absentee mail in ballots in California. You're cutting it a bit close Tom.

[Torie]

Why did the undecideds break for Fiorina so hard?  Was it because of Fiorina's ads?

The undecideds weren't going to break for the guy who isn't completely insane. It was either her or DeVore.

Oh crap, I didn't even realize Campbell is out.  Sorry, I was under a rock for the past 3 days.

He's not.

Spill the beans!

Campbell went dark on the media for a couple of days, when his campaign cash got short. He is back on the air now.

[Torie]

Vote early and often Torie (friendly tip from Illinois!)

Well I did the first bit. I mailed in my absentee ballot last Tuesday. I think intrade gives Campbell about 3% odds or something. It all sucks. To add to the misery, the GOP seems trying its best to re-elect Reid. Just why voters are so irrational escapes me.

Meanwhile, DeVore gets pretty specific about why he thinks Fiorina will be shredded in November, if she wins the nomination. Think HP of course. The quality of his analysis degrades a bit when it comes to his reasoning as to why he thinks he is in the hunt to win the nomination: it's because the GOP primary turnout will be so low, that it will be dominated by tea partiers, with respect to which he is the chosen one. DeVore does spare us his analysis as to why after the tea partiers save the day for him, while "RINO's" like me don't vote at all, he can beat Boxer.

Here are a couple of DeVore zingers:

"I don't think it will be one single firestorm," DeVore said. "I'm picturing a long, slow trainwreck."


"What's frustrated me about people supporting Fiorina is that they're looking at all sizzle and no steak," ... . [This one rips off Mondale's where's the beef thingy]

[Torie]

Goodness gracious, the hate for Fiorina runneth over.....damn man, she's not the Anti-Christ.

Well Grumps, why don't you write a brief in her defense?  Maybe Marokai can help you. I have been very impressed with his brief writing.  Sure, his loyalties lie elsewhere, but as you say, Carly fans around here on thin the ground, so one needs to get imaginative.

[Torie]

Gramps, she has the worst biography of any senatorial candidate I've ever seen.  And I've seen a candidate who had Mike Tyson be the best man at his wedding, who was roommates with a leader of a famous prostitution ring, and who made his entire fortune off of betting against the housing bubble.

Any swing voter who becomes familiar with her in the course of the election will turn to Boxer.  People like Torie hate her because she's incompetent and she can't win.

Remember, not only did HP fire her (with a golden parachute), McCain's campaign fired her after she repeatedly made gaffes on the campaign trail (remember the one where she said McCain couldn't run a big company?).  She can't win, and people like Torie hate her because she's going to be a depressing site on the airwaves from now until November, where Boxer will be reelected.

I think that might be a stretch as far as what I've seen, but I don't recall my earlier post touting her as a god-send.....I think she sucks less than many, but she does suck.  I still stick by my dinner offer to Torie.

Dinner is on, Grumps. Heck I offered to take you to dinner this October, if you were willing to drive into that part of Pennsylvania known as Alabama north.

I will say this though. If Angle can beat Reid (if she gets the nomination), then maybe Carly can beat Boxer. How's that?   And no, Carly is not as nutter as Angle, but then California is not Nevada either.

[Torie]

Sam, the polling says Nevada loves nutters now, or what? What do you think will happen to Angle's numbers, when Reid plays over and over again, her dislike of booze (Vegas would shut down without booze), social security (she wants it eliminated), and on and on?

[Torie]

Sam, the polling says Nevada loves nutters now, or what? What do you think will happen to Angle's numbers, when Reid plays over and over again, her dislike of booze (Vegas would shut down without booze), social security (she wants it eliminated), and on and on?

The polling says that Reid has the "doomed incumbent" trajectory that appears time and time again.

Doomed incumbents are not dead incumbents, however.  Just likely to die.  Maybe Angle is bad enough to warrant the exception.  Time will tell on that.

If the trajectory changes, I'll be happy to tell you.  Right now, it's playing to form.

Boxer may have that trajectory too, but I'd bet against it.  The more likely answer is that Fiorina will fit the doomed challenger trajectory (still working on the specifics of that model).  But likely any GOP candidate would.

You might add to your Venn diagram, the scenario of the doomed incumbent against the doomed challenger, then I guess. What happens in the depths of the valley of doom?

[Torie]

Sam maybe the model does not work very well relying on the past correlations of poll results to election results, when you have highly unusual candidates. And I consider Reid and Angle both "unusual."

[Torie]

Polls I believe are somewhat misleading for the senate race. It is hard to believe so many Republicans are willing to throw the race away by nominating Fiorina. Campbell has strong support among decline to state voters, some of whom will register Republican for tomorrow to vote for him. I will not give up hope for him just yet, remember Romney was several points ahead in the lead up to the presidential primary in California, but McCain ended up winning.

Tonight's SUSA poll shows Campbell doing worse with DTS, than registered Republicans, with Carly at about 48% or something. It is over.