WMNF Radio/St. Pete Polls: Trump +6 in Florida

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

Roll Roons is right though. St. Pete Polls had a Poll out a week before the 2020 Election showing Biden carrying Pinellas County by Double Digits. Actual Result was a 49-49 Tie.

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

I’m pretty sure St. Pete consistently overestimated Biden in 2020, so I would think Trump wins by at least 3-4 more than this.

You are correct. The most ridiculous & hilarous Poll was that they told everyone Biden would carry Pinellas County by Double Digits and it ended up in a Tie.

Also, they are using a 2020 Model in their Poll. Full Stop here! Trump is up by 9-12 right now.

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

Roll Roons is right though. St. Pete Polls had a Poll out a week before the 2020 Election showing Biden carrying Pinellas County by Double Digits. Actual Result was a 49-49 Tie.

How likely do you think double digit Florida is?

With the recent Registration Gains Republicans made in South Florida it is certainly 70 % possibility.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/florida/trump-vs-biden

As Roll Roons said St. Pete Polls have vastly overestimated D's in the past. They had Biden up 1 in 2020.

They had Gillum up 5 in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

And they had Nelson up 4 in 2018

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/florida/scott-vs-nelson

They have overestimated D's by an Average of 4 Points the last few Cycles.

So I would add 4 Points here and you get to 10.