Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[2016]

Assuming no big changes - Desantis over-performs his polling average by about 5%. Haley and Trump just about match their polling averages

Unfortunately, desantis likely won’t drop out

No more Caucuses! Caucuses should be abolished and in 2028 both Parties in IOWA hopefully agree to run a Primary.

https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1747100772574126190

People walked out of the Caucuses without voting once the Race was called. This is definitly a good case to abolish Caucuses in the Future. It's Election medding.

[2016]

Assuming no big changes - Desantis over-performs his polling average by about 5%. Haley and Trump just about match their polling averages

Unfortunately, desantis likely won’t drop out

No more Caucuses! Caucuses should be abolished and in 2028 both Parties in IOWA hopefully agree to run a Primary.

https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1747100772574126190
People walked out of the Caucuses without voting once the Race was called. This is definitly a good case to abolish Caucuses in the Future. It's Election medding.

DeSantis directly benefited from it being a caucus.

No, he didn't! Every single Primary or Caucus needs to be a closed Primary or Caucus. The reason Trump won the Nomination in 2016 is because he cleaned Cruz' Clock among Independents.

[2016]

I remember when Cruz won IA in 2016. Trump gave a speech looking all sad, and people thought the result meant Trump’s campaign had  lost its momentum (“looks like Iowa built a wall around Donald Trump”).  8 years later, people think his IA win suggests indomitability

Cruz didn't win Iowa by 30 points.

His actual vote total will be similar to what Cruz finished in 2016 though . Just a couple thousand more, looks like

And ? Taking 50% in the caucus whatever the turnout, is no small feat.

After all, you were predicting the blizzard to benefit Haley and for Trump to receive low 40s.

Wrong, DeSantis deserves massive credit for playing the Expectations Game right! After the CNN Iowa Debate Anderson Cooper questioned him about Iowa and Ron didn't take the bait.

Now Haley will have to debate DeSantis in NH after only getting 3rd. Sununu himself claimed Haley would get a strong second in IA. The Haley Campaign played their Expectations Game wrong while DeSantis overperformed Polling Averages by 4-5 Points.

[2016]

Haley loses Johnson County by 8 votes. 8 votes made the difference between Trump sweeping every county and not.

Nikki Haley wins Johnson County by 1 Vote according to Results from the Iowa Republican Party
https://results.iacaucus2024.com/?mc_cid=bc011e5ac4

[2016]

Ugh … desantis talking upbeat about how Iowa just punched his ticket (to where? Goodness, who knows). He won’t be dropping out

Haley has only HERSELF to blame that DeSantis isn't dropping out. Saying that NH needs to correct Iowans, the Civil War Flub. She made some pretty big mistakes down the stretch in Iowa.

I think DeSantis would have dropped out had he gotten 3rd in Iowa.

[2016]

Ugh … desantis talking upbeat about how Iowa just punched his ticket (to where? Goodness, who knows). He won’t be dropping out

Haley has only HERSELF to blame that DeSantis isn't dropping out. Saying that NH needs to correct Iowans, the Civil War Flub. She made some pretty big mistakes down the stretch in Iowa.

I think DeSantis would have dropped out had he gotten 3rd in Iowa.

Say you were Haley and were trying to do as well as possible. What would you have done differently?

I would have just stay quiet. Haley and DeSantis being sort of tied in POLK COUNTY is a complete joke. This is an Area where she should have run up the margins.

[2016]

Who's the next poor soul who hires Jeff Roe.

Ted Cruz has already re-hired Jeff Roe for his 2024 Senate Re-Election Campaign I am told quite awhile ago.

[2016]

Here is an crazy stat that shows you how much more non religious the nation is getting. In 2016 about 36% of Iowa GOP caucus goers were non-evangelical and now that number is up to 46%

Not surprising!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
In 2012 the 43 % of Iowas caucus goers were non evangelical.

It's basically back to 2012 today.

[2016]

Haley with the strongest attacks on Trump I've heard so far from her, accused him of being no different than Biden, attacked his age.

Too little, too late.

MSNBC also speculated if she was gunning for a No Labels bid, not likely at all, of course, but I do think she knows deep down it is going to be very hard to come back in 2028.

Trump's victory speech was glorious. Showing everyone he owns the party.

All he did was congratulate people lol.

DeSantis ended Nikki Haley tonight. DeSantis will run again in 2028. And people will likely be more open to him having just finished out his Term as Florida Governor which ends on January 7th 2027.

Bottom Line: Many Trump Voters wanted DeSantis to run in 2028 in the first place.

[2016]

Haley with the strongest attacks on Trump I've heard so far from her, accused him of being no different than Biden, attacked his age.

Too little, too late.

MSNBC also speculated if she was gunning for a No Labels bid, not likely at all, of course, but I do think she knows deep down it is going to be very hard to come back in 2028.

Trump's victory speech was glorious. Showing everyone he owns the party.

All he did was congratulate people lol.

DeSantis ended Nikki Haley tonight. DeSantis will run again in 2028. And people will likely be more open to him having just finished out his Term as Florida Governor which ends on January 7th 2027.

Bottom Line: Many Trump Voters wanted DeSantis to run in 2028 in the first place.

He finished 2% ahead of her. he didn’t end her. If the polls are just as accurate about NH as they were about IA, DeSantis will be over 20% behind her in one week, and she will end him

There is no way Haley runs again in 2028 having being out of Political Office since early 2017.
If the Polls are as accurate in NH as they were in IA DeSantis will overperform again and get 10 % of the Vote there.

DeSantis basically stopped Haleys Momentum heading into NH tonight. She will crater.

[2016]

The big Problem for the Republican Party going forward with Trump. Perception matters more then the actual verdict says DeSantis' Supporter Gene Church who originally is from Pensacola, Florida



Even if Trump gets convicted and then wins on appeal the Democrats will run Ads non-stop saying the Republican Party is a basket of criminals. He's right.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747120436444348902