FL-Senate 2024 Megathread

[2016]

Who will challenge Rick Scott in 2024?

Given the bloody whitewash Democrats experienced in Florida on Tuesday I bet many Democrats who wanted to challenge Scott are now reconsidering.

[2016]

It's more likely Rick Scott loses a primary than a general at this point, given that many people will be blaming him for the abysmal 2022 results.

Who is gonna primary Scott? Don Jr.? I doubt it.
Byron Donalds is running for GOP Leadership Position in the House so I doubt him challenging Scott as well.

Voters ain't going to blame Scott in 2024 of what happened in 2022. Voters have very short term memories.

[2016]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:



I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

Even if Scott is vulnerable by 2024 you are severly underestimating the Florida Republican State Party. They pulled off Wins in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 when they had no business doing so. And no 2022 wasn't an outlier. Florida Republicans outnumber Florida Democrats by 305,000 Registered Voters for a reason.

[2016]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:

I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

Even if Scott is vulnerable by 2024 you are severly underestimating the Florida Republican State Party. They pulled off Wins in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 when they had no business doing so. And no 2022 wasn't an outlier. Florida Republicans outnumber Florida Democrats by 305,000 Registered Voters for a reason.

I still don't know about this.  Going back to at least 2008 Republicans were hovering pretty consistently at around 50% in statewide races, and this year that jumps to around 60%.  Do you really think the state has changed that drastically in just two years?  Or was DeSantis (a likely presidential nominee) just up against a very weak opponent, and Rubio (whom I have total contempt for, btw) just coasting on being an unthreatening, lazy, do-nothing incumbent Senator?

To be clear, I'm not saying Democrats have a clear path in front of them--Florida really is a right-of-center state.  But Scott (aka Mr. Let's-Sunset-Social-Security-and-Medicare) doesn't strike me as a particularly secure incumbent.  If inflation is under control, and if FL Republicans start pushing for much stricter abortion limits, I really could see someone like Stephanie Murphy taking him down.

Southern Florida has changed a lot. When Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade in 2014 Democrats I believe had a 270K Registration Advantage in that County, now that has shrunk to 139K.

Maria Elvira Salazar beat Annette Taddeo by 17 Points and Carlos Gimenez beat his Democratic Opponent by 26 Points.

[2016]

Florida is truly GONE for Democrats now. Republicans are gaining 30K New Voters per Month as explained by these new Numbers by the Florida Division of Elections.

October 31st 2022

R - 5,297,121
D - 4,970,554
Minor Parties - 263,352
NPA - 4,008,962
Total Reg Voters FL - 14,539,989
R-lead - 326,567

November 30th 2022

R - 5,325,589
D - 4,969,377
Minor Parties - 264,802
NPA - 4,037,098
Total Reg Voters FL - 14,596,866
R-lead - 356,212

There is a good chance that EVEN Trump wins Miami-Dade County if he is the Nominee in 2024.

R's have cut the D's lead in Dade County to under 130,000 Voters according to new figures.

Senator Rick Scott will easily get re-elected no matter whom he faces in 2024.

[2016]

As we see with R Incumbents and Rs sees with D Incumbents in 4.2 unemployment remains the key ingredient why we aren't getting huge turnover that's why Rs protected all their open seats and Ds protected their Incumbents, but Biden numbers are improving

Floridas Unemployment is among the lowest in the entire Country and YOU, YOU wanted Gillum & Crist installed as Governor. Thank God Voters in FL did not agree with you otherwise the State would be off the deep end.

[2016]

She's at least their best shot; Scott is horrific and it'll be a presidential year with at least better turnout than a year like this for Dems. FL mostly gone for them but she's prob the best recruit they have.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1605206765540450309

Safe R -> Safe R

Lol Biden won Miami Dade in 2020 we lost Miami Dade in 2022 we aren't losing it this time Around , Scott won by 1 pt, DeSantis isn't leading Biden by 20 it's 6

DeSantis is very unlikely to win FL by 20 in a 2024 race, but even by half that margin, Scott isn't going to lose reelection. Dems should triage FL in 2024 and focus on TX. With a strong recruit like Alred, we can at least give Cruz a run for his money.

This!
Republicans will have a 500,000 maybe 600,000 Registration Advantage heading into the 2024 Election.
Also, that User umichvoter is utter garbarge. I followed him in 2020 and he said Biden had FL in the bag. He has been more wrong then right.
Trump will win FL by 4-5 Points if he the Nominee and DeSantis would win his Home State by 6 or 7.
The State has moved too far to the right for Democrats to win it and Stephanie Murphy isn't a particularly good Fundraiser + FL is a very expensive State to run a Campaign in.
The Reason Val Demings was chosen this year was bcuz she had better Fundraising Abilities.

[2016]

Well she hasn't officially announced yet and DeSantis maynot be the nominee unless there is a trial going on Trump can very well be the nominee he is losing FL and in some polls he is still leads DeSantis

I am very excited for Stephanie Murphy and will donate when she officially announced

Stephanie Murphy was part of January 6th SHAM CMTE. Good Luck to her trying to sell that in FL. FL is total MAGA State.

[2016]

Tell me if you really believe Stephanie Murphy or any other Democrat has a chance beating Rick Scott based on this BECAUSE I don't:

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1605246379386871808

[2016]

Republican Registration Edge in Florida has balooned to 394,830.

Republicans - 5,316,499 (-9,090)
Democrats - 4,921,669 (-47,708)
Independents - 4,311,607 (+9,707)

In paranthesis are the changes from December 1st 2022.

R+394,830

[2016]

Republican Registration Edge in Florida has balooned to 396,830.

Republicans - 5,316,499 (-9,090)
Democrats - 4,921,669 (-47,708)
Independents - 4,311,607 (+9,707)

In paranthesis are the changes from December 1st 2022.

R+394,830

Aww, I missed these updates!

2024 FL-SEN is Safe R anyways. Nothing to see here.

Thanks I appreciate it.

Yeah, FL looks GONE for D's for the forseeable future. FL Legislative Session begins in March. By that time the lead will be 400,000+ IMO.

[2016]

Florida Republicans elected a new Chairman of the State Party in Christian Ziegler last weekend.

And according to updated Numbers from the Florida Divisions of Elections the Republican Registration lead has balooned to 417,000+.

[2016]

The most likely  Democratic Opponent for Senator Rick Scott at this early stage of the 2024 Campaign might be former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Given the drubbing Democrats took I doubt Stephanie Murphy actually runs.

[2016]

Voter Registrations...

Pennsylvania: D LEAD R by 471,000

Florida: R LEAD D by 450,000+

This is a absolutely mind boggling, insane and striking at the same time. Florida Republicans now have almost eclipsed the lead Democrats have in Pennsylvania.

[2016]

Voter Registrations...

Pennsylvania: D LEAD R by 471,000

Florida: R LEAD D by 450,000+

This is a absolutely mind boggling, insane and striking at the same time. Florida Republicans now have almost eclipsed the lead Democrats have in Pennsylvania.

You act like this is a good thing. You don’t get extra credit for winning a red state by 20 points instead of 5.

Republicans will not in Pennsylvania for the forseeable future, maybe never. Trumps win over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a fluke.

[2016]

Keep in mind that following a legendary cycle for PA Dems in 2018, the state trended rightwards in 2020 relative to 2016. Not impossible that things go the same way except in reverse in FL shifted 4 years later.

And PA trended leftward in 2022 despite record high inflation among other thing.
PA is gone for Republicans just like Florida is gone for Democrats for next several Election Cycles.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FloridaGOP/status/1646160271499489282

Republican Voter Registration Lead grows once again, now to almost 455,000, up nearly 20K from Feb 28 when Republicans enjoyed a 436,000+ lead.

[2016]

Barber said Triage FL and IA anyways and he also said Triage Sinema and Manchin too

We have the 303 map Brown, Tester, Kunce even in this Environment and Perhaps TX can go D, we still are contesting FL but we have other chances for a Filibuster proof Trifecta in other states as well as triage WV

There is ZERO and I mean ZERO Chance Kunce has a shot against Hawley.

[2016]

Republicans once again increase their Voter Registration lead from 454,918 a month ago to 472,780, an increase of 17,862!

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

[2016]

Republicans once again increase their Voter Registration lead from 454,918 a month ago to 472,780, an increase of 17,862!

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Sounds like more wasted Republican votes at the expense of elsewhere.

It's not wasted. Florida has 30 Electoral Votes!!!!!!! I'd rather have these Votes locked up ASAP!

[2016]

Republicans once again increase their Voter Registration lead from 454,918 a month ago to 472,780, an increase of 17,862!

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Sounds like more wasted Republican votes at the expense of elsewhere.

It's not wasted. Florida has 30 Electoral Votes!!!!!!! I'd rather have these Votes locked up ASAP!

No one serious thinks Florida is really competitive anymore.

It's not over until it's over. There are 5.3M+ NPA Voters in FL, many of them from blue States such as NJ, NY, etc. who came into FL because of Governor DeSantis COVID & Economic Policies. What are they gonna do if Trump is instead the Nominee and not DeSantis in 2024 is anyones guess. Until the MAGA Crap People are finally extinct I will always be nervous even in a R-leaning State.

[2016]

Florida Republicans now lead Florida Democrats by more than Half a Million Registered Voters.

Trump will most likely underperform given his legal troubles but Rick Scotts Senate Seat now definitly starts as "LIKELY REPUBLICAN" hold

https://twitter.com/RedStateIdeas/status/1669687474136788993

[2016]

May 31st 2023

R - 5,311,365
D - 4,815,215
Minor Parties - 282,695
NPA - 4,012,610
R-lead - 496,150

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Keep in mind that this Data is directly pulled from the Florida Secretary of State Divisions of Elections Website and is a lagging Indicator as they are 20 Days behind.

Most recent Data from the 67 County Supervisors of Elections have Republicans eclipsing 500,000!

Rick Scott will do better among Puerto Rican Voters compared to 2010, 2014 and 2018. The reason Scott actually beat Senator Nelson in 2018 was primarily because of his responses as Governor to Hurricanes Irma, Maria and Michael.

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1671200938734878720

[2016]

Florida Updated Voter Registration Totals - 07.01.2023

🔴Republicans - 5,292,898
🔵Democrats - 4,764,461
🟠Independents - 4,245,942

R + 528,437 Registration Edge

The State is now super gone for the Democrats! We're half a year into the 2024 Election Cycle and the Democrats still haven't found a reasonable Candidate to run against Senator Rick Scott.

After the Midterms there was talk about either former Rep. Stephanie Murphy or former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell running but that has died down quite a lot in recent weeks and months.

The already iffy Senate Map for Democrats gets even more iffy. Manchin will almost certainly lose. A new Poll out of Ohio shows Senator Sherrod Brown well under 50 %, in the 44-46 % and the Candidates there like Dolan, Moreno and LaRose are not as bad and polarizing as J.D. Vance was last year.

Only Pick Up Opportunity for the Democats seem to be Texas but I still don't see Cruz losing to Allred.

[2016]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,

So, the Democrats now along with Colin Allred in Texas are now trying to recruit Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.

Neither of these two Clowns are going to win EVEN if Trump is the Nominee.

The Democratic Senate Hopes are going down the DRAIN!

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is so AFRAID of a potential Showdown with Governor Jim Justice that he is now contemplating a 3rd Party Presidential Run with former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.