FL-Senate 2024 Megathread

[2016]

Who will challenge Rick Scott in 2024?

Given the bloody whitewash Democrats experienced in Florida on Tuesday I bet many Democrats who wanted to challenge Scott are now reconsidering.

[Ferguson97]

It's more likely Rick Scott loses a primary than a general at this point, given that many people will be blaming him for the abysmal 2022 results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was a Neutral cycle not an R cycle in a Midterm
 Yr, so if inflation goes down we can win red states which it will go down not now but by 24

DeSantis and Trump has zero chance to be Prez because it was a neutral cycle meaning we only need CO, wI, VA, MI and PA, and NV or NH

[Squinty]

Who will challenge Rick Scott in 2024?

Given the bloody whitewash Democrats experienced in Florida on Tuesday I bet many Democrats who wanted to challenge Scott are now reconsidering.

Stephanie Murphy previously expressed interest, though given the wholoping that Demings got I think she's gonna reconsider.

Also, I don't think Scott wins by as much as Rubio did, but it will still be an easy victory for him.

[SnowLabrador]

It'll probably be a sacrificial lamb, maybe an obscure state legislator, but it won't matter. Scott wins by double digits.

[UWS]

It'll probably be a sacrificial lamb, maybe an obscure state legislator, but it won't matter. Scott wins by double digits.

The disastrous results that FL Dems got will likely force several Dem heavy weights to step aside because they know their chances are declining, resulting that the field will be narrow. And Scott has a strong fundraising ability as we've seen in 2018

[2016]

It's more likely Rick Scott loses a primary than a general at this point, given that many people will be blaming him for the abysmal 2022 results.

Who is gonna primary Scott? Don Jr.? I doubt it.
Byron Donalds is running for GOP Leadership Position in the House so I doubt him challenging Scott as well.

Voters ain't going to blame Scott in 2024 of what happened in 2022. Voters have very short term memories.

[here2view]

Safe R

[TheFonz]

It's more likely Rick Scott loses a primary than a general at this point, given that many people will be blaming him for the abysmal 2022 results.

Who is gonna primary Scott? Don Jr.? I doubt it.
Byron Donalds is running for GOP Leadership Position in the House so I doubt him challenging Scott as well.

Voters ain't going to blame Scott in 2024 of what happened in 2022. Voters have very short term memories.

Byron Donalds is running for GOP Conference Chair against Stefanik, but it's unlikely he'll be successful. A shame, because he's pretty great and she's genuinely awful. But nevertheless, he would be a formidable primary challenge to Scott (if he even runs again, which is not a sure thing considering his fall from grace) and would be a solid GE candidate and senator.

Ashley Moody might give it a shot if it's an open seat. Nunez is well positioned to run for governor and Moody may see the senate as her best chance for a promotion.

Maria Salazar also seems like an obvious candidate. Why wouldn't she run?

[MillennialModerate]

Safe R

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:



I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

[Queen Isuelt]

Stephanie Murphy retired and was planning on running for the senate. She may wait and pick the right environment. She's the most credible candidate we have in Florida right now.

[Zedonathin2020]

Unless Climate Change rapidly accelerates and floods half of the state, safe R

[2016]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:



I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

Even if Scott is vulnerable by 2024 you are severly underestimating the Florida Republican State Party. They pulled off Wins in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 when they had no business doing so. And no 2022 wasn't an outlier. Florida Republicans outnumber Florida Democrats by 305,000 Registered Voters for a reason.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:

I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

Even if Scott is vulnerable by 2024 you are severly underestimating the Florida Republican State Party. They pulled off Wins in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 when they had no business doing so. And no 2022 wasn't an outlier. Florida Republicans outnumber Florida Democrats by 305,000 Registered Voters for a reason.

I still don't know about this.  Going back to at least 2008 Republicans were hovering pretty consistently at around 50% in statewide races, and this year that jumps to around 60%.  Do you really think the state has changed that drastically in just two years?  Or was DeSantis (a likely presidential nominee) just up against a very weak opponent, and Rubio (whom I have total contempt for, btw) just coasting on being an unthreatening, lazy, do-nothing incumbent Senator?

To be clear, I'm not saying Democrats have a clear path in front of them--Florida really is a right-of-center state.  But Scott (aka Mr. Let's-Sunset-Social-Security-and-Medicare) doesn't strike me as a particularly secure incumbent.  If inflation is under control, and if FL Republicans start pushing for much stricter abortion limits, I really could see someone like Stephanie Murphy taking him down.

[President Johnson]

Charlie should give it one more try!

[2016]

I don't know.  Florida is clearly a right-of-center state, but part of me thinks that 2022 may have just been an extreme outlier:

I actually think, depending on the national environment, we could see a quick reversion to the mean and that Scott may actually be vulnerable.

Even if Scott is vulnerable by 2024 you are severly underestimating the Florida Republican State Party. They pulled off Wins in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 when they had no business doing so. And no 2022 wasn't an outlier. Florida Republicans outnumber Florida Democrats by 305,000 Registered Voters for a reason.

I still don't know about this.  Going back to at least 2008 Republicans were hovering pretty consistently at around 50% in statewide races, and this year that jumps to around 60%.  Do you really think the state has changed that drastically in just two years?  Or was DeSantis (a likely presidential nominee) just up against a very weak opponent, and Rubio (whom I have total contempt for, btw) just coasting on being an unthreatening, lazy, do-nothing incumbent Senator?

To be clear, I'm not saying Democrats have a clear path in front of them--Florida really is a right-of-center state.  But Scott (aka Mr. Let's-Sunset-Social-Security-and-Medicare) doesn't strike me as a particularly secure incumbent.  If inflation is under control, and if FL Republicans start pushing for much stricter abortion limits, I really could see someone like Stephanie Murphy taking him down.

Southern Florida has changed a lot. When Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade in 2014 Democrats I believe had a 270K Registration Advantage in that County, now that has shrunk to 139K.

Maria Elvira Salazar beat Annette Taddeo by 17 Points and Carlos Gimenez beat his Democratic Opponent by 26 Points.

[Sir Mohamed]

Charlie should give it one more try!

Dude needs to switch parties first.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Charlie should give it one more try!

Dude needs to switch parties first.

Lol he Lost 20 he won't ever run again

[BloJo94]

At this point, we might as well just run this guy.https://mobile.twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/743533178095210497

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point, we might as well just run this guy.https://mobile.twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/743533178095210497

Bernie Sanders is up for reelection and he isn't gonna give Phil Scott an Appointment so that Rs can win control of the S noway no chance, no how, Biden already said he is running numerous if he decided not to run he would endorse Newsom or Harris not Bernie with his seat up and the S is divided so Rs can obstruct on Judges again

We can flip FL or TX

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1594694346414379010

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1594694346414379010

Republicans, please continue to donate to "give Walker all the support he can get"! You will be funding Rick Scott's re-election campaign in a state Trump won by only 1% in 2016 and 3% in 2020!

[lfromnj]

Stephanie Murphy retired and was planning on running for the senate. She may wait and pick the right environment. She's the most credible candidate we have in Florida right now.

I think Murphy is just done with politics. She retired in a surprise before DeSantis even released a map and most maps had it similar to the old map for her seat.

[OriAr]

Stephanie Murphy retired and was planning on running for the senate. She may wait and pick the right environment. She's the most credible candidate we have in Florida right now.

I think Murphy is just done with politics. She retired in a surprise before DeSantis even released a map and most maps had it similar to the old map for her seat.

Rumors are she is considering running for the FL Dem state party chair.