Does Tim Ryan have a chance to win?

[2016]

Yes, I think there's a pretty good chance Ryan will win. As others above have noted, Vance is running a terrible, self-destructive campaign. Vance's comment about abusive marriages sounds like extremely bad advice from Ann Landers. (Although the comment does not necessarily portend what kind of federal laws he might try to make (so why did he comment about it at all?)) Polling done in the last month by Impact Research, Momentive, and Grow Progress consistently has Ryan ahead of Vance, and even FiveThirtyEight has Ryan very narrowly above Vance. Sherrod Brown won reelection four years ago. And there's even an issue of scandal among the state's Republican state legislators that could potentially taint Vance too. I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that Ryan will win, and maybe even slightly better than that, at 51-49 or 52-48.
(Don't interpret this as if I'm endorsing Ryan. I'd rather vote for an independent.)

This is just massive wishful thinking here. As terrible as Vance is as soon as he starts really tying Ryan to the Biden/Harris Agenda and Congressional Democrats in General any lead Ryan has will evaporate.

This Race reminds me a bit of the McConnell/Lundergan-Grimes Race of 2014. McConnell had terrible Approvals in his Home State, wasn't really well liked but did the one thing that saved him by tying Grimes to the hip of President Obama who had terrible Approvals in KY and it worked to the degree that Grimes even refused to say who she voted in 2008 & 2012 despite being a Delegate twice for the DNC.

I can tell you a lot more about this Race once I see the JA in Ohio for President Biden. The notion that in all of the competitive Senate Races all of the sudden Democrats are outrunning Bidens JA by 10+ Points is just BOGUS!

[2016]

"A chance" implies anything more than 0%. Obviously it's higher than that, I just voted No regardless because his chances are extremely low. The fundamentals are just against it. Trump twice won the state by 8, Dems failed to elect a gov since 1991 for all but once and Brown was a a strong incumbent running in a Dem wave year. The polls are not trustworthy, as they constantly underestimated R support, especially with months to go.

He might have a chance against Vance if both ran in a state like PA or even WI, just not OH. Sure, Vance may not be a good candidate, fundamentals and the state's partisan lean will definitely bail him out.

Likely/Safe R.

Lol every poll has Vance Losing

Every Poll has the White Working Class Voters as the most Undecided Vote and almost all will go Republican.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1552312919332880384

[2016]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.