Texas 2022 megathread

[2016]

O'Rourke is as clumsy as hell. A Progressive Tax Hiker & Spending Spree is the last thing the Democratic Party needs right now.

If anything he should wait to 2024 and announce another Senate Run if Cruz runs for POTUS!

[2016]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

Texas will never elect a Progressive like Beto who has no shame.

[2016]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

I fall over my Chair if we lose TX or FL. Even if it's only a neutral Environment this year Republicans should win these States.

[2016]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

I fall over my Chair if we lose TX or FL. Even if it's only a neutral Environment this year Republicans should win these States.

Not just win, but easily win them. If either of them are within 5 points then Rs are in deep trouble.

Texas & Florida going into opposite Directions. Texas is moving towards the Democrats while Florida is moving more towards Republicans.

[2016]

Cruz won't lose in TX in 24 or if he runs for Prez Crenshaw is gonna run for TX and FL if Crist or Demings win Gwen Graham will run against Scott

Crenshaw definitely want to run for Sen if Cornyn or Cruz retire

Bill Nelson already was Senator from FL we have a better chance of beating DeSantis

He only won by 1500o votes

Actually we have a better chance of flipping OH than TX DeWine isn't beating Nan W by 20 pts with OH Senate only 5 pts

Lake showed the Gov race a tie we need someone else to poll OH

Dan Crenshaw will never hold a Statewide Office in TX. He already pissed off a lot of Conservative Base Voters with his moderate stances. It's more likely that someone like Troy Nehls or Chip Roy will replace Cruz. And if Trump runs for POTUS again Cruz will stay in the Senate.

[2016]

Abortion won't become that big of an Issue in TX. The biggest Issue in TX is the Border and O'Rourke is absolutely clueless what to do with that Issue.

The Country doesn't need 87,000 IRS Agents. It needs 87,000 Border Patrol Agents IMO!

[2016]

@ProgressiveModerate,
Vice President Kamala Harris may have just ended any Chance Beto O'Rourke had in this Race.
In an Interview on Meet The Press with Chuck Todd Harris said "The Border is Secure". When Todd pointed out to her that over 2Million People crossed the Border illegally this year she doubled down.

Get ready for Abbott to unleash some Ads soon tying O'Rourke to Harris.

NO KAMALA, the Border isn't Secure.

[2016]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

[2016]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt9aPhZDu9s

Watching the TX Gov Debate on Youtube.

It's actually a lot more civil than I expected on both ends; I was kind of worried that Abbott would sorta become the adult in the room but Beto is overall well-spoken and more "mature" than I expected him to be.

Abbott inherently has a bit of a tougher job since he gets the tough questions about how he's done as governor, but a lot of the times he really didn't have a great response and sort of flailed. On the flip side, O' Rourke was well spoken but since he is not the incumbent, he didn't have as many controversial things to defend.

One strategy on Abbott's part really seemed to be to tie Beto to Biden, and also blame everything not going well in Texas with the Biden admin, most notably border control.

Overall, it seemed like a slight Beto win but nothing massive.

After the debate they talked with their panel of undecided voters from Dallas, a group of 15 "swing voters" and visually a pretty diverse group in terms of race and age. Generally, it seemed like this group shifted towards O' Rourke after the debate, going from 40 - 27 in Abott's favor to 50 - 43 in O' Rourke's favor, and all saying they are likely to vote. A lot of them seemed very dissatisfied to a lot of Abbott's answers.

Obviously this is a very small group so it's mostly anecdotal but still interesting.

Look, Beto is going to win in Dallas County. The Question is the margin. I fall over my chair if O'Rourke wins by the same margin he won against Cruz in 2018

Here are the Cruz - O'Rourke 2018 Race
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/texas

Look at the RGV!!! Will O'Rourke do as well as he did in 2018? I very much doubt that.

Beto won 66-33 in Dallas so if he wins only 50 - 43 he ain't going to win Statewide.

As you correctly pointing out only a small sample of those Undecided Voters. Still, does Beto really think deep inside his heart that TX 2022 will be remisent of TX 2018. I very much doubt that. He might safe Democrats a couple of House Seats.

But my feel is every Democrat in the Country in a Toss Up Race will eventually dragged down by Bidens JA. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always a Referendum on the President and that's not going to change this year.

[2016]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

[2016]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

Are you then predicting that Abbott will win by double digits?

Probably not by Double Digits, 7-9 Points I think.

[2016]

Given that Republicans seem to have some National Momentum on their side I would that the National Republican Surge has probably put the Texas Governor Race out of reach for Democrats.

[2016]

Abbott has this. Early Vote Turnout in Texas is below 2018 Levels.

My Question is can Abbott pad enough of a margin to drag Mayra Flores, Monica de la Cruz and Cassy Garcia over the line.

[2016]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

[2016]

Biden JOB APPROVALS per Exits:
Texas 40/58
North Carolina 43/56
Ohio 41/58
Wisconsin 46/54
Pennsylvania 46/53

Those are just a few. Biden had a negative Job Approval in every single Swing State in 2022.

[2016]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

[2016]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

Interesting that you ignored Senate 2018 because it doesn't fit your narrative,

2018

Ted Cruz (R) 4,260,553 - 50.9%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 4,045,632 - 48.3%

There you go, if we can get those voters out then we only need 200k, not 600k.

Am I saying it's even remotely likely? Nah, I think Texas would still probably go for Trump by around or under 5 points, but I also think Trump is far more comparable to Cruz in terms of divisiveness than Abbott.

Joe Biden is no Beto O'Rourke.