OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[2016]

Say hello to Senator Jim Jordan!

There is no way Democrats can win this in a Biden Midterm.

[2016]

Democrats are not going to win Ohio. If they couldn't beat Mike DeWine in a D+8 Wave Ohio is lost for them. Mandel will not be the GOP Nominee, most likely it will be former Ohio GOP State Chair Jane Timken and she will win easily. Trump was close endorsing her but aides told him to wait.

[2016]

Where are the polls in NC, OH and FL they must be Lean R, the DSCC aren't releasing any internals, it's early but they release WI

Also no polling at all on PA, either

If you believe these crap Internal Polls from the DSCC you are waaay out of your mind.

Republicans will hold Wisconsin and Evers will be defeated as well.

[2016]

Portman siding with Timken makes it less likely that Trump will do the same IMO.

Portman won in 2016 with 58 % to 37.2 % and outran Trump by 6.2 Percentage Points so I think Portmans Endorsement will carry more weight compared to whomever Trump endorses.

Timken is getting a lot of Endorsements the last few Days. Today Rob Portman, Yesterday Kellyanne Conway, former Trump Campaign Manager & Senior Adviser. Timken also has the Endorsements of Republican House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik & South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.

[2016]

That probably means something; Portman won by 21 points in 2016.

Do you know what the last poll in this race was  Mandel tied with Ryan 38/38 Mandel isn't winning by 21 pts FL, NC and OH are gonna be close because when the votes are counted Biden isn't gonna be at 41% Approval it's a CONGRESS cycle, Prez Approvals don't mean much in Congress in 2o18 Trump with 4% unemployment held onto the Senate

I am not buying Biden 41% Approvals anyways until votes are counting

If Timken wins the Primary on the back of her recent Endorsements that is CHEKMATE when it comes to the Ohio Senate Race. Ryan has no chance against Timken.

[2016]

Tim Ryan is more likely to lose the primary than win the general.

Lol no he isn't gonna lose the primary not to Morgan Harper when Sherrod Brown endorsed him

He is from Youngstown just like Brown is from Akron Mahoney County

That QU was PURE JUNK 54 percent BLK and 36 percent of Latinos support Biden LOL NO, WE HAVE NV, AZ, CO, CA, NJ, IL AND NY AS LATINO STATES

30 PERCENT OF THE D VOTE IS Minority AND 20 PERCENT IS WHITE WE LOSE THE WHITE VOTE ONLY 44 Percent VOTE FOR DS BECAUSE 2/3 RDS OF POVERTY Rate ARE BLK AND Latino MEN

Trump WON Mahoning County by 2 Points over Biden in 2020.

Ohio is permanently GONE for the Democrats in Statewide Races just like Iowa & Missouri.

80-90 % of the Democratic Votes comes from 4 Counties [Hamilton/Cincinnati; Cuyahoga/Cleveland; Franklin/Columbus and Lucas/Toledo) and that's not going to be enough to offset what Republican Candidates get in the Rual Parts of the State particularly among Non-College Working Class Voters.

The White-Working-Class will come out in DROVES in November to support the Republican Candidate given what they had to endure under Biden this past year.

[2016]

Given Timkens Endorsement Bonanza we need to have an Independent GOP Primary Poll really!

[2016]

Ohio Democrats need to look themselves in the mirror to why they are about to lose to incendiary people like Josh Mandel and JD Vance in 2022 and possibly Jim Jordan in 2024.

If Democrats would focus on economics, ECONOMICS, maybe dump BBB and continued to press for a  minimum wage hike even if Sinema voted it down, they would have been in a better position.

I agree with a lot of this, but I can’t see Jordan running for Senate if 2024 if he passed over a run for this year.

I think it's going to be OH SoS Frank LaRose who runs against Sherrod Brown or even John Husted. Either one would win.

[2016]

2016 doesn't make user prediction I do and every Election doesn't flow exactly around 303 wall if RS can make R Nut maps I can make a D Nut map we beat you RS 80/75 M I'm 2020 46/43 in 2018 and 65/62 M look it up on Election results you guys haven't won the NPVI since 2014 that's 8 yrs ago that's a very long time ago, and anything can happen it's VBM not same day and we got 80 M votes RS got less in 2020 that's why you guys Los
 

When I see a WI, PA, OH, NC poll I may adjust my map but Approvals lie Lol Trump kept the Senate in 2018 with 40/57 Approvals

You are a complete JOKE on this Board! What makes you believe the Democrats will win the the Independent or NPA Vote? They won't! Democrats are not going to win in a State Trump won by 8 Points in 2016 & 2020. Your Predictions are baloney and nonsense.

And if Jane Timken is the GOP Nominee the Seat is Lean R bordering Likely R.

[2016]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

The National Mood is already really, really souring. Bidens Job Approvals in States with competitive Senate & House Races is below 40 %. Heck, even in CA (LA Times Poll) or NY Times/Siena he is barely even.

[2016]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

The National Mood is already really, really souring. Bidens Job Approvals in States with competitive Senate & House Races is below 40 %. Heck, even in CA (LA Times Poll) or NY Times/Siena he is barely even.

The only question left to ask is can it get any worse lol

Who knows? Going to be interesting how the Ukraine/Russia thing is going to play with Voters. They might view Biden even weaker which doesn't bode well in Statewide & Congressional District Races.

I am interested given all the Endorsements by Timken how she is doing in the next Round of GOP Primary Polling.

Timken would definitly take this Race off the Board!

[2016]

One issue I have with Harper's campaign strategy is that she seems to believe that just running it up in the three C's with high black turnout is enough to win OH.

It's not. Biden lost by 8 and had pretty respectable performances at least in Columbus and Cinci. You'd have to be winning Columbus with Austin-like margins and turnout to maybe come remotely close.

If Dems want to have any shot at OH down the road, they have to close the gap in rural areas and at least partially bring back the Northeast coalition which requires a lot of WWC lower education white voters.

Regardless, this is not a race that should be competitive in 2022, but just my thoughts

Poll: 65 % of Rual Voters have Unfavorable View of Democratic Party
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/595358-65-percent-of-rural-voters-view-democratic-party-unfavorably-poll

[2016]

Trump won Ohio 2020 by nearly the exat same margin he did in 2016 which is 8 Points. Over the past 8 years since Obama won it in 2012 the Buckeye State has become more rual and with an unfavorable Midterm Environment for Democrats this year I just don't see how they can win it unless Mandel turns out to be the Eric Greitens of Missouri or Roy Moore of Alabama.

[2016]

JD Vance will win this. LOL on Cruz who finished 3rd way down during the 2016 Primaries.

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The worry with Dolan is that his winning the primary might trigger an independent run by someone more conservative. That's the only way this race ends up competitive.

Yes that could possibly happen but I don't think it will.

I am counting on Governor DeWine pulling Dolan over the Finish Line in November if Dolan is the Nominee. DeWine will likely win in a landslide in November maybe by a similar margin Kasich won in 2014 against Fitzgerald.

[2016]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

Very real, he went from single digits to >20% support in the span of like a week. What kind of comment is that?

All he did was receiving votes from democrats who crossed to the GOP primary to stop Vance/Mandel. His early voting heavy pattern screams democrats hijacking the primary just like how Thad Cochran survived in 2014.

+100k Democrats didn't vote in the GOP primary.

Cope.

Democrats are finished in OHIO for good just like it will be in FLORIDA.

[2016]

Vance surge suggests Kemp could have a hard race coming once Trump steps in Georgia.

Trump has been stepping in for ages. Kemp will win easily.

If Perdue overperforms by the same margin Vance did in Ohio the GA Governor GOP Primary is going to a Runoff.
This. Kemp will easy win the nomination, and based on his approvals right now, the general won't be too tough either. I'd say the nomination is Safe Kemp and the general is about Lean Kemp.

[2016]

Olowakandi,
Sabato has OH-SEN still as Likely Republican.

Ryan has been on the Airwaves in OH nonstop.

This Race will change dramatically into Vance favour after the Summer.

Ohioans do not care about Abortion, etc. They care about the Economy, Jobs, etc. and those are set to worsen in the coming months. Ryan has been voting 99.8 % of the time with the Socialist Biden Agenda.

And that Bill that just passed Congress via Reconciliation won't sit well with Ohio Voters.

New Polling shows a Plurality of Voters nationally think it will worsen the Inflation. The US will go into Recession early 2023.

[2016]

Vance will beat Ryan by 8-10 Points. From the Data I could gather thus far President Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Program might lure some younger Voters to the Polls in November. However there seems to be a sizeable blacklash among blue collar white working class voters, voters Ryan needs to beat Vance. So the Student Loan Bailout is a net negative for Biden the Democrats particularly in those State who have a high concentration of Blue Collar WWC Voters.

Biden effectivly handed the Senate Race to Vance.

[2016]

AGAIN, Tim Ryan CHOKING, can't & struggles to defend his 100 % Record voting with Pelosi.
https://twitter.com/wsmartin218/status/1583852660071202816