2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

Economist is ran by Morris who has been badly off in 2016, 2018 and 2012.
No way we get a D+13 Electorate.

[2016]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

[2016]

To be fair, when you have the money, you can move into more areas.

Outside GOP groups seem to have an endless stream of money, so I'm not surprised they might as well try whatever they can.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-gop-crush-democrats-donations-ahead-midterms-raking-73m

While the Fundraising/Spending clearly favours Democrats in the Senate, D's are getting absolutely CRUSHED in the House when it comes to those two items.

[2016]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

Every district is different though. For every RI-02 or OR-06, there's a PA-07/PA-08/ME-02, etc where Dems are keeping up in more Trump areas. You could argue the same thing the other way, where if this was a red midterm, there's no way Susan Wild would be in a Tossup race right now or that Golden or Cartwright would be close to favored.

I expect most of the Toss Up Races going the Republican way in November.

Pelosi knows the House is GONE especially in light of the new Inflation Report.

[2016]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

The Dems in CA 27, 41 and 45 have decent fundraising. Remember the polls in the CA recall did underestimate Newsom quite a bit in this region. Obviously Dobbs is a wildcard here as well.

There is a well organized GOP effort to gaslight everyone into thinking a red wave is the only possible outcome of the 2022 election. Look at betting markets, for a month we've had little movement either way outside of Wisconsin and Georgia (better for both incumbents).

The NJ-7 investment suggests the GOP is a bit concerned, I would be too in a 50% college district. Both sides have plenty of money there and not sure if it will matter.

The GOP isn’t spending millions to trick people in thinking it’s a red wave. They are spending because they think the spending will help them in those districts. Betting markets are useless and have the same lack of quality polling that we do. District polls have looked a bit better for the GOP lately and the actions of the parties reflect an understanding that the GOP is more competitive in Biden +5-10 seats than they were a few months ago.

Yeah, Malinowski is out campaigning Kean in NJ-07. Kean has snot himself in the foot by going MAGA in the primary. Polling indicates that the Dems will hold up well in this district because of the education level, but Kean would’ve won by a few points in this iteration of the district in 2020. So Malinowski needs a swing to him, which will be hard to get even if Kean has lost crossover appeal.

Only MAGA can win, other Republicans are RINOS and frauds.

[2016]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

[2016]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

I don't believe in Bipartisanship anymore (I used to) but these Days are long gone now. Name one Bipartisan Legislation over the last 20 years that benefitted Republicans? Hint: You won't find one.
Bipartisan Legislation only benefits Democrats these Days.

[2016]

Bottom Line

# A) Republicans coming HOME. That was always going to happen.

# B) Democrats IMO have always lived in some sort of "Fantasyland" when they thought they could buck a Midterm Trend with record high Gas Prices (4 $ a Gallon on Average I think) and a record 40-year high Inflation with just the Issue of Abortion alone. Yes, Gas Prices maybe coming down a tad but it is still higher compared to when Trump left Office.

# C) Mending the Midterm Election by releasing oil from the Strategic Oil Reserves is not a good look good either. Voters will see through it.

[2016]

I am hearing that ABC/WaPo & NBC NEWS will release GCB Polls this weekend and they will show R's up by a similar margin like the Monmouth Poll.

[2016]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

Thanks for pointing that out. You cannot buck trends & fundamentals alone with one Issue when all the other ones working against you. Every other Issue Abortion aside R's are leading.

[2016]

What Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats don't get: The House of Representatives was always Likely Republican even during the Dobbs Decision given that Republicans only needed six seats to win it.

Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats will of course never admit it but "You Blew essentially your House Majority in 2020 when you let Republicans flip 13 Seats".

Finally I want to point out Politico's House Forecast. They even had the House as Likely Republican during the Dobbs Decision so I give them heaps of credit by sticking to their guns while Democratic Trolls like Wasserman instantly said that the House might be in play.

What I personally don't like is this: Cook & Wasserman claim to be non-partisan YET in every Election Cycle they spent 90 % of their time on one particular Network: MSNBC. Don't claim to be Non-Partisan when you are not.

And I say the same thing that I said about Wasserman about Nate Silver. He claims 538 is Non-Partisan because he pulls the strings there and is a Democrat.

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

[2016]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.

They are going down because Biden has released more oil from the Strategic Reserves. IMO that probably has the potential to be an impeachable offense to mending an Election.

And what's even more impeachable is begging OPEC+ not to cut oil production after the Midterms. That is a Quid Pro Pro IMO.

[2016]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

SPENDING OURSELVES OUT OF INFLATION like Democrats are planning to do ain't the solution either.

[2016]

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

Amy Walter is the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report (the publication you said you disliked earlier in your post), FWIW. I would hardly call her a great political handicapper since she wrote a whole article doubling down on Cook's decision not to rate Georgia as a likely pickup opportunity in 2020 (while also making errors about Georgia's electoral geography in said article).

But she doesn't spent 90 % of the time on MSNBC like Wasserman and then claimes to be non-partisan.

Anyone who spents time on MSNBC is a big "Red Flag" to me and that goes for both, Republican & Democratic leaning Political Analysts. MSNBC should be abolished as a Network because it is indeed the Democrats Party Propaganda Arm. We don't these unserious people like Joy Reid, Nicolle Wallace, Lawrence O'Donnell, Alex Wagner, etc.

[2016]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

After Biden won the 2020 Election I made a point on numerous occasions here that Biden won because 50 % of his Voters came from the "I hate Trump" fraction. That is not a winning coalition to win Elections especially when Trump ain't on the ballot.

[2016]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

We have seen a bunch of Polls all moving simultanously going into the Republicans Direction.

Abbott up 11 Points gave me some pause this morning as this was a 5-8 Point Race a couple of weeks ago. Abbott could now very well win by 15+ Points. He is at 53 % too.

[2016]

And one more thing I want to mention:
A lot of Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats I think owe me an apology. I said MONTHS AGO that Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents will eventually come HOME and I was laughed at.

[2016]

So that's two major pollsters showing a D+5 shift in the GCB in just 1 week.

It would be funny last week's shift to Republicans was an anomaly.

LOL,
Sabato would not have moved the CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R if D's were ahead in the GCB.

Ignore the Generic Tests.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

Not only is the Target Smart Model Trash. The Generic Congressional Polls are also TRASH. Why would Sabato move CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R Column if D's were ahead by 5 Nationally. This makes literally no sense at all.

[2016]

The Economist/YouGov National Sample is D+13!!!

Give me a break! What are they cooking here! We are not having a D+13 Electorate.

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

Not only is the Target Smart Model Trash. The Generic Congressional Polls are also TRASH. Why would Sabato move CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R Column if D's were ahead by 5 Nationally. This makes literally no sense at all.

Because they made the ratings move before this new set of GCB polls came out?  Sabato would have needed a...crystal ball.

Democrats holding the House is an absolute PIPE DREAM. The House is ULTRA-SAFE R.

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

Now we have the answer about that D+13 Sample. Economist/YouGov have taken that apparently out from the Target Smart Early Vote Model. That makes sense then. It's all EV Samples.

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

wbrocks,
It's a neutral to lean R Environment. It's not a D-lean Environment like YouGov & Big Villages are suggesting.